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Where should these guys be drafted next year?

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Re: Where should these guys be drafted next year?

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Sat Oct 04, 2008 11:17 am

Snakes Gould wrote:im not saying im writing hart off, but id take quite a few similar players ahead of him. im not saying id take werth over hart, but a .270 avg .800 ops 20/20 guy can be found later on. now if hart can go .290 25/25 90 runs 90 rbi and .850-.900 OPS (which i think he could do) then he's worth taking in the first 5 rounds or so.

And since we won't know what he will do, he's a gamble...I went high on him this year and, looking back on it now, he didn't provide the value for where I drafted him. If he "fell" to the 6th or 7th round, which might be possible, then I might go after him again. I wouldn't draft him higher, as of right now.
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Re: Where should these guys be drafted next year?

Postby Field » Sat Oct 04, 2008 2:43 pm

RedSoxNation04 wrote:
Snakes Gould wrote:im not saying im writing hart off, but id take quite a few similar players ahead of him. im not saying id take werth over hart, but a .270 avg .800 ops 20/20 guy can be found later on. now if hart can go .290 25/25 90 runs 90 rbi and .850-.900 OPS (which i think he could do) then he's worth taking in the first 5 rounds or so.

And since we won't know what he will do, he's a gamble...I went high on him this year and, looking back on it now, he didn't provide the value for where I drafted him. If he "fell" to the 6th or 7th round, which might be possible, then I might go after him again. I wouldn't draft him higher, as of right now.


He was very good in the first half. I'm not sure quite what happened in the second half besides his huge slump to end the season. I was also quite high on him heading into 08. Not many players at his height can be consistent which makes me skeptical that he can ever reach elite status. He has the height of a power hitter, but the swing of a slap hitter. I don't think I'll be targeting him next year although I wouldn't mind him on my team.
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Re: Where should these guys be drafted next year?

Postby Field » Sat Oct 04, 2008 3:06 pm

Snakes Gould wrote:i wouldnt quite say VERY GOOD. the first half is on par for what many people expected him to be at.

also, 1 tidbit about kemp. he still needs to learn how to hit right handed pitchers better.


Well it depends on what your definition of very good is obviously. When a guy is drafted in the top 5-6 rounds and meets or exceeds expectations I consider that very good. He wasn't amazing, but he was at 28 combined HR & SB with a solid average at the break. If I recall correctly he was around the 40th ranked player at the time.

His lack of walks definitely concern me though, it leaves him susceptible to long draughts. Pence is actually a similar player and could be the value play next year.
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Re: Where should these guys be drafted next year?

Postby bigwords » Wed Oct 08, 2008 10:03 am

Cliff Lee
Where I think he'll go: 7th round. He'll win the Cy Young award but he doesn't have stud strikeout numbers, plays for a team that won 81 games this past year, and will be seen as slightly risky considering 2006-07
Where I think he should go: Top 10 pitcher off the board. His peripherals are great. I don't think he'll be the next Bartolo Colon.

Edinson Volquez
Where I think he'll go: 10th round. May seem a tad low, but it's about where Dice-K went this year. I think his stock will drop some in the offseason as he's measured against other pitchers
Where I think he should go: 14th round. Those walks still scare the hell out of me. The only thing stopping him from being almost unownable in fantasy leagues is a low home runs allowed rate this past season. Any regression there, and he's a huge bust in waiting.

Carlos Quentin:
Where I think he'll go: 4th round. He might have gone higher if not for the injury. Low track record and positional value
Where I think he should go: late 3rd/early 4th. The injury is the only caution flag on him, I think.

Matt Kemp:
Where I think he'll go: 4th round. He's got sexy potential written all over him
Where I think he should go: 5th/6th round: Most people see upside with Kemp. I see downside. I see an unsustainable batting average considering his contact rate. I see a steals number that may decline. I see a runs total that could dip depending on lineup position. He could hit more home runs, but I think that overall, he has a slightly disappointing season

Corey Hart:
Where I think he'll go: 8th/9th round. He's still a name
Where I think he should go: 9th round. Lot of volatility with him. I think his batting average could get better. He could easily surpass his draft value. However, I worry about slumps and bad defense and a possibility he loses playing time.

Evan Longoria
Where I think he'll go: 2nd-to-4th round. Nobody will be sexier
Where I think he should go: 6th round. Third base is just way too deep and great HR potential is enticing but not enough. A big bet on Longoria might not win your league but it could lose it. I can't think of a single reason why drafting Longoria ahead of Brian McCann is wise.
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Re: Where should these guys be drafted next year?

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Sat Oct 11, 2008 10:40 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:I don't see it as a stretch to see either one of Hart, Longoria, or Kemp drafted in the 3rd round, early 4th at latest. We're seeing the kind of quality campaign out of Hart and Kemp as a 5-cat contributor that propelled Alex Rios up draft boards. With Braun no longer a 3B next year, I can see that bumping up Longoria's value to the point he could be drafted slightly ahead of A-Ram. Longoria's production has been fantastic, slightly above projection but it should be interesting that if he makes the slated early September return, if that wrist fracture affects him some immediately.

For Carlos Quentin, I can see him as a 3rd rounder, maybe even a 2nd for some at the pace he's on. Volquez's stock has drifted some and so, I'd anticipate instead of being on a 3rd round pace, he's more on pace to land as a 5th/6th rounder. Cliff Lee is probably going to be in between 5th and 6th round at latest as well.


Well stated and broken down.
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