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Victorino's Ceiling

PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 12:03 pm
by BALCO All-Stars
I was a big fan of him going into last year, and he went 12/37 in only 456 AB (that's roughly 15/50 in 600 AB). Anyway, the power hasn't been there this year until lately, and he's been on a tear since the ASB (8 HR in the last month). What does everyone think he can do year in and year out? Is he a Crawford lite type of player (similar stats but Victorino probably won't get the RBI) or is this just a flash in the pan since he's not the biggest guy (5'9" 180). He had some seasons in the minors where we hit upper-teen HR counts (I think 18 was a high).

I ask because I have Granderson, Victorino, and BJ Upton in a perennial keeper league and was thinking about flipping either Granderson or Victorino in a trade and keeping the other one. I'm a big fan of Granderson too, but he hasn't been stealing as much this year...thoughts on Vic's ceiling, especially in the Philly lineup?

Re: Victorino's Ceiling

PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 12:56 pm
by Pogotheostrich
I think he can hit 15-20 HR a year and the RBI/R opportunities are there in that lineup.

Re: Victorino's Ceiling

PostPosted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 1:08 pm
by Rhydderch
I'm a big Victorino boaster. I had him last year and kept him this year so I'm a believer, and think he's an under the radar sort of guy.

This year he's hitting with more power (451 slug. compared to 423 last year), and has cut his strike outs down (k per 9.4 abs vs 7.3) while walking a little more (walk per 11.7 abs vs 12.3 in 07).

The thing with Victorino is he's very streaky in all areas, except maybe SB. IMO, he needs to play a lot to get one of these streaks going. The problem is he gets minor injuries which disrupt his playing time, and therefore reduces these streak he goes on.

I think if he could put together 160 games, he would hit 280-290, with 300 as a ceiling. I feel his celing for power is 20 hrs. However, I think he's more of a 145 game kind of player, meaning I expect 280-15 hr-45 sb -65 rbi-100 runs line.

I think Uptons + Granderson may have higher ceilings, but Victorino could actually be more stable. Granderson may be stealing less becuase of that lineup.