No I think I read this in a thread a few weeks ago. It was something like 1/3 get worse, 1/3 get better, and 1/3 stay the same. Give or take 1/3
Regardless, you can't compare one of the top rated rookies from last year who didn't get much of a chance to every single rookie. Obviously the top ones have a better chance of improving on a bad first year. He couldn't get any worse, so that idea that 70% decline, even if it were true, would be irrelevent.
If you want upside, go with Harden. If you're going to rely on the guy and want someone who'll have a rotation spot all year, pick Leiter. But if you're relying on Letier or Glavine anyway, I pity you.
Take a chance on Harden.
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