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freeling_prideful wrote:Has anyone else noticed that rookies coming up this year have been met with disproportionate hype/high expectations? I think a big part of this shift has been caused by Ryan Braun's freak rookie season, but so far what we've seen is that--as we ought to have expected--rookies perform in accordance with their minor league resumes. For the year:
Johnny Cueto - a power pitcher with extreme flyball tendencies in Great American, who has been shelled with a ridiculous homer rate. I actually liked him to put up a 3.5 ERA/1.25 WHIP type season, in about 170 IP, and have been pretty far off thus far, though he is improving. Judgment: overhyped.
Evan Longoria - a 3B who had very little experience beyond AA, and actually had pretty big strikeout rates in the minors. Hyped as the "next Ryan Braun" thanks to playing the same position, he has actually come to closest to living up to the billing: .275-.348-.513 makes him a legitimate rookie of the year candidate. Peripherals do not look like they are due for a large correction, though his 16.8% HR/FB may be a tiny bit high, and I'd expect that to tail off to closer to 14% by season's end. Judgment: Meeting expectations.
Clayton Kershaw - OK, so we've all seen the Kershaw vs. Casey YouTube video. We know his curveball breaks like two feet. Unfortunately, we all knew about his ridiculous control problems as well (and in A/AA ball, not even against AAA hitters). But people were talking up this guy as a definite No. 1 waiver pick. Personally, I thought there wasn't a single player in the minors worth the No. 1 waiver this season, and Kershaw certainly proved me right in his case. Judgment: Overhyped.
Jay Bruce - Here's the toughest one to judge. His scorching first 2 weeks brought the hype levels even higher, but then his peripherals caught up to him. A 27% K rate and 46% GB rate will continue to limit him in the second half, especially his weakness for the breaking ball. I thought he would finish around .270-15-65 for the season, and he's pretty much on that pace. Judgment: Overhyped.
The Artful Dodger wrote:As for "the Braun curse", a Ryan Braun breakout rookie campaign isn't extremely rare, but of course, it's the exception in most cases. A good deal of managers who missed out on Braun are probably more likely to scour for "the next big thing", which isn't uncommon.
J35J wrote:I'm not sure its really the Braun Curse....this happens every year. People jumping on and off bandwagons at a blink of an eye is the norm around these parts. You usually just get used to it, at least I have.
AngryMonkey wrote:What are our thoughts on Kershaw for the remainder of the season and into next? Is he worth a bench spot in a keeper league should one have enough pitching to compensate?
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