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Talk me out of taking Gagne in the first round

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Postby LBJackal » Tue Mar 02, 2004 6:25 pm

Regardless of any theory or expectation to fall in saves, he is the best bet to be the best closer. By the theory that players go closer to the mean, then guys like Braden Looper would be projected to save more games. Which I wouldn't bet any money on.

And I don't see any reason for the save opps to fall. First of all, Encarnacion is worse than Brian Jordan, so his addition won't help to score more runs. Second of all, I don't know if you were being sarcastic talking about their rotation, but they probably will throw less CG's this year. Save opps are random, but Gagne has been getting lots of them with LA's anemic offense, and converting mostly every single one.

His probability of getting 50+ saves is the same this year as it was last year and the year before, since little has changed. Some people say that people who do well ar "due for a decline" but the laws of finite math discount that theory. Probability doesn't decrease or increase based on prior results if nothing that the results depend on have changed.

He's as good a bet as anyone. Don't worry about picking him.

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Postby EugeneStyles » Tue Mar 02, 2004 8:09 pm

Well, it could be argued that the probability of him getting 50+ saves last year was very low, and he's just been lucky. But I digress.

I can't talk you out of Gagne in the first. Even in a roto league, there's a case to be made for ranking him in the top 10, as long as there is an innings limit of less than, say 1300. He is a 4 category stud in 5x5, and if your points league projects him as a top player, then treat him like a top player, because he's bound to produce.

I mean, as long as that weight loss was due to bulemia and not withdrawal... :-o
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