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acon44 wrote:LOB% is not all luck depending on the situation. His LOB% is so high because he walks a lot of people, but then nobody can hit him when those guys are just sitting there. That is not really luck. His control issues are not as worrisome as your typical pitcher cause he can throw 98mph with a FILTHY changeup. Typically the luck factor with leaving guys on base would mean that they are lucky that nobody is hitting while those guys are sitting on the bases, but that is not the case here since there is a reason(actually 2, his fastball and changeup) that those guys get stranded so often.
With that said, I would sell him high IF you can get a real good player back. His ERA is 1.56, even BEST CASE scenario if he comes up to 2.75 or so, and please don't tell me you think he will stay under 2 for the year, then you are looking at him being at a 3.50 era the rest of the year, and that is IF he finishes at 2.75.
I always remind people, baseball is the one sport that is VERY streaky. Right now he is in a groove, and granted he has great stuff, but he will not just shut down every major league team all year. Webb is the perfect example, even a guy like that hits his hot and cold patches, it's just a part of the game. So basically if you sell him now you are pretty much guaranteed to have gotten his best portion of the year.
Yanks_Baby wrote:Everyone remember Laffey? In 1 start he went from a low 1 era, miniscule really, to an above three. Add the huge walk rate, and all it will take is 1 or 2 starts against a team with some pop, and his ERA will be above 3 in no time.
RedHopeful wrote:Yanks_Baby wrote:Everyone remember Laffey? In 1 start he went from a low 1 era, miniscule really, to an above three. Add the huge walk rate, and all it will take is 1 or 2 starts against a team with some pop, and his ERA will be above 3 in no time.
Really great analogy - Laffey (control pitcher) and Volquez (power pitcher.) Second, team with some pop? I guess PHI, CHI and ATL don't count??
You've got no basis for it and all you are doing is stating the obvious. Naturally a couple of bad outings would result in his ERA jumping.
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