jfg wrote:He's proved this year that he belongs there but I didn't have him ranked very high at the beginning of the year either. I think they are pretty interchangeable though. Tex keeps proving his mediocrity in the first months although the prospect of him being a Yankee or Met next season is very intriguing. Howard and Fielder both have the potential every year to hit 60 but I think Gonzo is going to be more consistent over the years. If he can get out of Petco (not that I wish that, I hope he stays a Padre) the sky's the limit.
Agreed, but I'd still wait and see how Gonzo does over a full year, keeping in mind his home power splits. Based on raw talent, I'd say Gonzo can be better than either Tex or Howard, but I'd still rank either one over Gonzo despite Tex's usual early-season slumber and Howard's .300+ average from '06 being a clearer aberration. I believe Fielder is still second to Pujols, especially in a keeper as well.
Personally, I draft keeper leagues the same way I would redrafts, with the slight difference being I'd rank a couple of younger players higher than veterans if that extra upside is likely to ripen in the coming year. That said, I'd be hesitant to rank Kemp and Justin Upton as high as they are if that's the way you mean to draft them, but I'll agree that either one will pan out as a top 15 OF within the next few years. I'd be careful in underrating Manny, Vlad, and Ordonez too much as well, given that the mentality should be to win the keeper league in year one with the best possible tools now (with the ideal situation you don't mortgage your future much either), but to each his own.