Cliff Lee revisited

[kcs261]

People were advocating fire selling Lee on this forum all over the place. The VAST majority of people predicted a blow-up and said he couldn't keep it up.

As I said then, and I will say now, that was over-managing. If you have a pitcher with a great WHIP, great K/BB ratios, just stick with the guy and be happy. The pitchers you want to trade are the ones who are getting Ws and points, but have crappy WHIP and K/BB ratios. Those are the guys you sell.

But not a guy like Lee who has numbers across the board that all off the charts. Those numbers give no reasonable basis to conclude that he will blow up.

Nice that you knew back in mid-May that Lee would still be pitching this well on July 20. Cliff Lee of the 6.30 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 2007, and 4.41 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 2006. Sure he had one very good season in 2005, but that was it. Saying that people were shortsighted to think you should sell high on Cliff Lee back in May is just plain wrong.

Also, you are wrong that the VAST majority of people predicted a "blow-up" - the vast majority of people were saying to sell high. Those are two very different things. It was completely logical to expect that Lee would come back to earth, and it then became a matter of opinion how much. Buying low and selling high is the entire key to winning - if you thought Lee would revert to form, then it was not panicking or being skittish to sell him for a nice price and it made perfect sense to do so.

You made a nice call by saying you thought he could keep it up, though you really provided no strong evidence for it. Good for you - you played a hunch that he could keep it up and it paid off (so far), a la Esteban Loaiza circa 2003. Personally, its paid off for me, as at no point have I been able to sell him as high as I wanted.

This post is wrong on so many counts that I hardly know what beach ball to hit first. First, the silence is deafening from those who aren't responding (and there were many of you advocating a Lee fire sale).

Second, buying low and selling high is overly emphasized by many fantasy owners -- and must be weighed against another well-known cliche: ride the horse that got you to the dance. Some of you might want to lache on to this concept and incorporate it into your thought process for balance. I see so many fantasy players screw up there teams or advocate that other players screw up their teams because they do not now how to recognize a career year in the making and, instead, over-manage by fire selling a guy who can win them their league.

In other words, the reality is that me keeping Lee wasn't a hunch. That's an insult and shows an unwillingness to grow as a fantasy owner. The reality is that when you looked at Lee's WHIP and K/BB ratio, and the W/L on a losing team, it was an informed observation to look at his numbers and determine that he is having a career year. You all should have seen it. Yes, you should have.

Selling high makes sense when you have a pitcher winning games who has a sub-par WHIP, a sub-par K/BB ratio. Selling high makes sense when you have a hitter who is mashing but striking out like crazy. But selling high on a guy is putting up great numbers across the board is foolishness. It makes no sense. It is over managing.

Selling high on a guy who is having a career year can make a person ruin their season. Remember Dontrelle Willis' career year? What about Estaban Loiaza? What about Eric Ludwick this year who keeps hitting? Or what about Beltre's career year? I could give endless examples of where fantasy owners were crying to sell high -- only to see these players keep it up all year long. It happens every year.

In sum, fantasy owners need to know when to throw out the sell high mentality when a legitimate career year is in the making. Cliff Lee's number have been so stellar all year long that it was easy enough for most of you to spot it.

That's why I'm ragging on those who didn't spot it. It's a lesson for some of you to learn that sometimes you simply ride the horse that got you to the dance (and throw out the sell high mentality). Some of you over emphasize sell high and toss out guys who you should be keeping.

[J35J]

People were advocating fire selling Lee on this forum all over the place. The VAST majority of people predicted a blow-up and said he couldn't keep it up.

As I said then, and I will say now, that was over-managing. If you have a pitcher with a great WHIP, great K/BB ratios, just stick with the guy and be happy. The pitchers you want to trade are the ones who are getting Ws and points, but have crappy WHIP and K/BB ratios. Those are the guys you sell.

But not a guy like Lee who has numbers across the board that all off the charts. Those numbers give no reasonable basis to conclude that he will blow up.

Nice that you knew back in mid-May that Lee would still be pitching this well on July 20. Cliff Lee of the 6.30 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 2007, and 4.41 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 2006. Sure he had one very good season in 2005, but that was it. Saying that people were shortsighted to think you should sell high on Cliff Lee back in May is just plain wrong.

Also, you are wrong that the VAST majority of people predicted a "blow-up" - the vast majority of people were saying to sell high. Those are two very different things. It was completely logical to expect that Lee would come back to earth, and it then became a matter of opinion how much. Buying low and selling high is the entire key to winning - if you thought Lee would revert to form, then it was not panicking or being skittish to sell him for a nice price and it made perfect sense to do so.

You made a nice call by saying you thought he could keep it up, though you really provided no strong evidence for it. Good for you - you played a hunch that he could keep it up and it paid off (so far), a la Esteban Loaiza circa 2003. Personally, its paid off for me, as at no point have I been able to sell him as high as I wanted.

This post is wrong on so many counts that I hardly know what beach ball to hit first. First, the silence is deafening from those who aren't responding (and there were many of you advocating a Lee fire sale).

Second, buying low and selling high is overly emphasized by many fantasy owners -- and must be weighed against another well-known cliche: ride the horse that got you to the dance. Some of you might want to lache on to this concept and incorporate it into your thought process for balance. I see so many fantasy players screw up there teams or advocate that other players screw up their teams because they do not now how to recognize a career year in the making and, instead, over-manage by fire selling a guy who can win them their league.

In other words, the reality is that me keeping Lee wasn't a hunch. That's an insult and shows an unwillingness to grow as a fantasy owner. The reality is that when you looked at Lee's WHIP and K/BB ratio, and the W/L on a losing team, it was an informed observation to look at his numbers and determine that he is having a career year. You all should have seen it. Yes, you should have.

Selling high makes sense when you have a pitcher winning games who has a sub-par WHIP, a sub-par K/BB ratio. Selling high makes sense when you have a hitter who is mashing but striking out like crazy. But selling high on a guy is putting up great numbers across the board is foolishness. It makes no sense. It is over managing.

Selling high on a guy who is having a career year can make a person ruin their season. Remember Dontrelle Willis' career year? What about Estaban Loiaza? What about Eric Ludwick this year who keeps hitting? Or what about Beltre's career year? I could give endless examples of where fantasy owners were crying to sell high -- only to see these players keep it up all year long. It happens every year.

In sum, fantasy owners need to know when to throw out the sell high mentality when a legitimate career year is in the making. Cliff Lee's number have been so stellar all year long that it was easy enough for most of you to spot it.

That's why I'm ragging on those who didn't spot it. It's a lesson for some of you to learn that sometimes you simply ride the horse that got you to the dance (and throw out the sell high mentality). Some of you over emphasize sell high and toss out guys who you should be keeping.

[kcs261]

Hey, I know it hurts. 90% of you were advocating selling Lee, just like people were telling me I should sell Dontrelle Willis during his career year (when I won my league). On the hitter side, Ryan Ludwick is just like Cliff Lee. People want to fire sell him. I understand it to a point. You go everwhere and the talk is about who to buy low on and sell high on. That creates a mindsight where people try to out-think the game. But that's a formula for disaster in many instances if you don't have checks and balances on that midsight. If you have a guy like Cliff Lee or Ryan Ludwick, dismiss this simplistic logic of selling high. It's simplistic. It's over-managing. It's managing scared. These are guys who are having legitimate career years. If you can't look at their numbers and figure that out, you have a lot to learn about fantasy baseball as far as I am concerned. Just be happy if you have them and be thankful.

For all of you who ignore this thread and won't respond, I'll take it as an admission that you know you were wrong and are too scared to step up and admit it. There are many of you.

[mweir145]

First of all, just wow.

I don't really get why you're telling people it was a bad idea to sell high on Cliff Lee during a fluke season. He'd never done anything like this before, and it was completely reasonable for people to believe that he would decline to previous levels. I, for one, own Justin Duchscherer in my league, and I've been actively trying to sell high on him for weeks. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, it's what a smart manager does. Of course, there's also nothing wrong with keeping a guy like Lee or Duchscherer if you can't get anything back that will produce as much as they will anyway, but you have to atleast try.

Ryan Ludwick, by the way, is a 30 year-old career minor league journeyman. It's highly improbable that he will be able to keep this up. Selling high is the right thing to do with him. Calling that over-managing is completely ridiculous. I've owned way too many players who got off to great starts before declining to believe any of your absurb logic about accepting that players like this are in the middle of career years.

[Bwanna]

First of all, just wow.

I don't really get why you're telling people it was a bad idea to sell high on Cliff Lee during a fluke season. He'd never done anything like this before, and it was completely reasonable for people to believe that he would decline to previous levels. I, for one, own Justin Duchscherer in my league, and I've been actively trying to sell high on him for weeks. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, it's what a smart manager does. Of course, there's also nothing wrong with keeping a guy like Lee or Duchscherer if you can't get anything back that will produce as much as they will anyway, but you have to atleast try.

Ryan Ludwick, by the way, is a 30 year-old career minor league journeyman. It's highly improbable that he will be able to keep this up. Selling high is the right thing to do with him. Calling that over-managing is completely ridiculous. I've owned way too many players who got off to great starts before declining to believe any of your absurb logic about accepting that players like this are in the middle of career years.

Well said.

[kcs261]

First of all, just wow.

I don't really get why you're telling people it was a bad idea to sell high on Cliff Lee during a fluke season. He'd never done anything like this before, and it was completely reasonable for people to believe that he would decline to previous levels. I, for one, own Justin Duchscherer in my league, and I've been actively trying to sell high on him for weeks. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, it's what a smart manager does. Of course, there's also nothing wrong with keeping a guy like Lee or Duchscherer if you can't get anything back that will produce as much as they will anyway, but you have to atleast try.

Ryan Ludwick, by the way, is a 30 year-old career minor league journeyman. It's highly improbable that he will be able to keep this up. Selling high is the right thing to do with him. Calling that over-managing is completely ridiculous. I've owned way too many players who got off to great starts before declining to believe any of your absurb logic about accepting that players like this are in the middle of career years.

Well said.

Again, this is all wrong. You all accept the premise that you have to sell high when a guy is doing better than he ever has. Most of you do it without thinking. It's second nature. You have been told to do it. Prevailing view is that you do it. So, like a bunch of lemmngs, you do it. But you are all jumping off a cliff with Lee and Ludwick.

And you know what? If you have a guy whose numbers show he is a fluke, it's a good move. But not Cliff Lee and Ryan Ludwick. You are all wrong. And this is where the sell high logic has gone too far -- and many of you have become like lemmings touting a meaningless "cliche."

Look at Lee's numbers: 2.29 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 110 Ks to 20 BBs.

Somebody tell me when looking at those numbers why it is Cliff Lee is getting lucky and can't keep it up? If he was walking a bunch of people, I'd be with you. If his WHIP was in the 1.3-1.4 territory, I'd be with you. But when you look at these numbers, an astute fantasy owner sees this isn't a fluke. How can you people not see it? Get off the cliches about selling high and look at the gosh darn numbers. Lee's numbers have been in this territory all year long. This is legit.

With Ludwick, in two seasons, the guy has hit 37 HRs and 120 ABs in 614 ABs. How do you look at that and just conclude that he isn't legit? Good Lord, people. Did you even watch Cardinals' baseball? Have you seen this guy hit? The reason a guy like Ludwick didn't get a shot before was because under GM Jockety, management preferred veterans like Edmonds, Encarnacion, etc. Young guys didn't get a shot. But now that Ludwick has got his shot, he is off the charts. So is Ankiel. So will Colby Rasmus when he comes up. I digress.

Many of you are just lemmings touting this sell high BS in every case. You need to look at every player individually, not paint with a broad brush -- and be able to see when a legit career year is in the making. I'm not saying that selling high doesn't make sense at times.

But when you tout selling high on Lee and Ludwick, you are just repeating a meaningless cliche.

[ataraxia]

You keep pointing to his WHIP as an indicator that he's "not getting lucky", but that is a false premise. A WHIP can easily be influenced by luck. A better indicator of future performance would be his BABIP and "swing-and-miss" rates.

EDIT: Looking at his sabermetrics, while Cliff Lee's BABIP is normal (.301 or something), his GB/FB has shot through the roof this season. His career ratio is something on the order of .85, and this year it's 1.3. His HR/FB rate has also fallen to 3.7% as opposed to his career average of 9%. Does anyone know what has caused this seemingly sudden "transformation" into a huge groundball pitcher? His primary weapon, his fastball, isn't that much different in terms of velocity from previous years.

[Yoda]

Not sure what you are trying to prove. I've been on the bandwagon since the beginning mainly due to the great peripherals that he has been maintaining. Plus plenty of mediocre pitchers in history have had fluky good seasons so it wasn't completely out of the question that Lee could put together a Cy Young season.

However, you can't fault people for jumping off the wagon because they feel that someone else might provide more value on their roster. I'd guess 95% of the leagues out there didn't draft Lee this year and there are plenty of reasons why. People picked up Lee to ride the hot streak (as you do with every free agent) in hopes that he either A) continues to pitch well or B) to trade him to get something that they need. Either way, most people who were lucky enough (since no one could have seen this coming) to have grabbed him should be happy either way.

[J35J]

...you really are amazing....

Again, this is all wrong. You all accept the premise that you have to sell high when a guy is doing better than he ever has.

This is exactly what you should do....unless the guy in question is a young up and comer with great stuff and the improvement was something you expected. Lee is still the same pitcher he has always been with his league avg fastball and league average curveball. The reason why Lee has been soo good this year all comes down to his pin point control that i. You ABSOLUTELY sell high on a guy when "he is doing better than he ever has"...thats the exact thing you should do. Now I didn't say sell him at all costs or give him away, I said Sell High which you do if you can get the appropriate value. I'm going to guess that everyone who has advocated selling high on him this year actually HASN'T because they weren't able to get the value they were looking for. No one is saying dump these guys for a bag of balls.

And you know what? If you have a guy whose numbers show he is a fluke, it's a good move. But not Cliff Lee and Ryan Ludwick. You are all wrong. And this is where the sell high logic has gone too far -- and many of you have become like lemmings touting a meaningless "cliche."

Seriously? Everything Lee and Ludwick are doing are completely out of their norm(fluky). The smart thing to do would be to sell high, IF YOU CAN, and get someone who has a proven track record of the given numbers.

Look at Lee's numbers: 2.29 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 110 Ks to 20 BBs.

Somebody tell me when looking at those numbers why it is Cliff Lee is getting lucky and can't keep it up?

Because he isn't that good of a pitcher!! He's dominating the strikezone, unlike very many people ever have. Its possible he does end up keeping it most of the rest of the season but I'm not going to bank on it if I can get good value in return. Nothing in his career and the stuff he possess says he isn't this good of a pitcher.

[J35J]

If he was walking a bunch of people, I'd be with you. If his WHIP was in the 1.3-1.4 territory, I'd be with you. But when you look at these numbers, an astute fantasy owner sees this isn't a fluke. How can you people not see it? Get off the cliches about selling high and look at the gosh darn numbers. Lee's numbers have been in this territory all year long. This is legit.

So if Sidney Ponson goes out and dominates next year for a month or two and his periphials all look legit for what he is doing you are going to expect him to finish the year the same way? What if Chris Shelton comes out blazes a fire for a month are you going to expect him to continue doing so....oh wait.... What about Brian Bannister the first month of the year or Zach Greinke...they were as hot as anyone the first month of the year and all their numbers looked great....what happened to them, they should be able to keep it up just like Lee, no? Brandon Webb looked like he was a God amongst boys the first couple months of the season and even he has fallen off some....you don't expect ANY fall of from Lee? And again, maybe there won't be fall off this year and he just has one of those career years but who in there right mind othere than you will gamble on that...if you have a chance to get good value in return??

With Ludwick, in two seasons, the guy has hit 37 HRs and 120 ABs in 614 ABs. How do you look at that and just conclude that he isn't legit? Good Lord, people. Did you even watch Cardinals' baseball? Have you seen this guy hit? The reason a guy like Ludwick didn't get a shot before was because under GM Jockety, management preferred veterans like Edmonds, Encarnacion, etc. Young guys didn't get a shot. But now that Ludwick has got his shot, he is off the charts. So is Ankiel. So will Colby Rasmus when he comes up. I digress.

Many of you are just lemmings touting this sell high BS in every case. You need to look at every player individually, not paint with a broad brush -- and be able to see when a legit career year is in the making. I'm not saying that selling high doesn't make sense at times.

But when you tout selling high on Lee and Ludwick, you are just repeating a meaningless cliche.

Pretty much everything I've said goes the same with Ludwick, I won't repeat it now. Anyway, I'm looking forward to your response because its been a fun read thus far.....quite comical really. Makes my day here at work go by a little quicker!

Also, as far as career years....sure many guys go through them and its nice to have them on your team when they do but they are impossible to predict....many many guys start off hot and you think they may have that career year but will revert back to their norm, there really isn't anyway to tell if a guy will continue to have a season long career year or just a hot month or two, when the said player has no history of that much success....especially when the said player was in the freakin minor leagues the year before because was awful!


wow, back to work.....hopefully most of that made sense I don't have time to go back over it....