Bloody Sox wrote:kcs261 wrote:People were advocating fire selling Lee on this forum all over the place. The VAST majority of people predicted a blow-up and said he couldn't keep it up.
As I said then, and I will say now, that was over-managing. If you have a pitcher with a great WHIP, great K/BB ratios, just stick with the guy and be happy. The pitchers you want to trade are the ones who are getting Ws and points, but have crappy WHIP and K/BB ratios. Those are the guys you sell.
But not a guy like Lee who has numbers across the board that all off the charts. Those numbers give no reasonable basis to conclude that he will blow up.
Nice that you knew back in mid-May that Lee would still be pitching this well on July 20. Cliff Lee of the 6.30 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 2007, and 4.41 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 2006. Sure he had one very good season in 2005, but that was it. Saying that people were shortsighted to think you should sell high on Cliff Lee back in May is just plain wrong.
Also, you are wrong that the VAST majority of people predicted a "blow-up" - the vast majority of people were saying to sell high. Those are two very different things. It was completely logical to expect that Lee would come back to earth, and it then became a matter of opinion how much. Buying low and selling high is the entire key to winning - if you thought Lee would revert to form, then it was not panicking or being skittish to sell him for a nice price and it made perfect sense to do so.
You made a nice call by saying you thought he could keep it up, though you really provided no strong evidence for it. Good for you - you played a hunch that he could keep it up and it paid off (so far), a la Esteban Loaiza circa 2003. Personally, its paid off for me, as at no point have I been able to sell him as high as I wanted.
This post is wrong on so many counts that I hardly know what beach ball to hit first. First, the silence is deafening from those who aren't responding (and there were many of you advocating a Lee fire sale).
Second, buying low and selling high is overly emphasized by many fantasy owners -- and must be weighed against another well-known cliche: ride the horse that got you to the dance. Some of you might want to lache on to this concept and incorporate it into your thought process for balance. I see so many fantasy players screw up there teams or advocate that other players screw up their teams because they do not now how to recognize a career year in the making and, instead, over-manage by fire selling a guy who can win them their league.
In other words, the reality is that me keeping Lee wasn't a hunch. That's an insult and shows an unwillingness to grow as a fantasy owner. The reality is that when you looked at Lee's WHIP and K/BB ratio, and the W/L on a losing team, it was an informed observation to look at his numbers and determine that he is having a career year. You all should have seen it. Yes, you should have.
Selling high makes sense when you have a pitcher winning games who has a sub-par WHIP, a sub-par K/BB ratio. Selling high makes sense when you have a hitter who is mashing but striking out like crazy. But selling high on a guy is putting up great numbers across the board is foolishness. It makes no sense. It is over managing.
Selling high on a guy who is having a career year can make a person ruin their season. Remember Dontrelle Willis' career year? What about Estaban Loiaza? What about Eric Ludwick this year who keeps hitting? Or what about Beltre's career year? I could give endless examples of where fantasy owners were crying to sell high -- only to see these players keep it up all year long. It happens every year.
In sum, fantasy owners need to know when to throw out the sell high mentality when a legitimate career year is in the making. Cliff Lee's number have been so stellar all year long that it was easy enough for most of you to spot it.
That's why I'm ragging on those who didn't spot it. It's a lesson for some of you to learn that sometimes you simply ride the horse that got you to the dance (and throw out the sell high mentality). Some of you over emphasize sell high and toss out guys who you should be keeping.