Johan Santana or just Johan Satan?

[Rman3911]

Yeah yeah yeah "it's too early to tell." "he's a second half pitcher," blah blah blah. What's up? For the first pitcher taken off the board, what's up? Any takes on what's going on with the "stud?" I'm thinking of pitching Volquez, Cliff Lee, etc. over him every week.

[freeling_prideful]

Are you telling me you have 2 SP slots and that they both are taken up by Cliff Lee and Edinson Volquez?

Look, obviously drafting the No. 1 pitcher sometimes doesn't result in getting the best actual performance of ANY pitcher in the game...look at the guy who picked A-Rod, the No. 1 hitter. What you're paying for is consistent excellence, and I think Johan has been very solid.

That being said, I've watched him this season and last and have been quite surprised by his lack of dominance. His fastball, which a few years ago was always 92-93 and could touch 96, is down in the 88-92 range now. It's never had great movement either, so it's become a fairly hittable pitch if he misses his location. This is likely responsible for his vastly increased HR allowed last year, a problem that's carried over to 2008.

Obviously his change is still a killer offspeed offering, and that's what's going to keep him around 9K/9IP and will also prevent his ratios from going to high.

I'd take a few pitchers over him at this point...Brandon Webb, maybe Josh Beckett, Cole Hamels even...Jake Peavy if healthy, but that's a big 'if.'

[Rman3911]

Are you telling me you have 2 SP slots and that they both are taken up by Cliff Lee and Edinson Volquez?

Look, obviously drafting the No. 1 pitcher sometimes doesn't result in getting the best actual performance of ANY pitcher in the game...look at the guy who picked A-Rod, the No. 1 hitter. What you're paying for is consistent excellence, and I think Johan has been very solid.

That being said, I've watched him this season and last and have been quite surprised by his lack of dominance. His fastball, which a few years ago was always 92-93 and could touch 96, is down in the 88-92 range now. It's never had great movement either, so it's become a fairly hittable pitch if he misses his location. This is likely responsible for his vastly increased HR allowed last year, a problem that's carried over to 2008.

Obviously his change is still a killer offspeed offering, and that's what's going to keep him around 9K/9IP and will also prevent his ratios from going to high.

I'd take a few pitchers over him at this point...Brandon Webb, maybe Josh Beckett, Cole Hamels even...Jake Peavy if healthy, but that's a big 'if.'

So even with Johan's second half stats you think these guys will be better?

[Precise]

most of my h2h championship teams have had Johan. I draft him early or try to trade for him while he is having his annual slow start because when the playoffs come, there is no better pitcher in the month of september (last year was an exception tho). In a roto league, I have never drafted him tho and tend to wait on an ace i can get a couple rounds later.

[mweir145]

Am I missing something? He has a 3.36 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and 58 K.

Just terrible.

[bigh0rt]

Am I missing something? He has a 3.36 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and 58 K.

Just terrible.

3.57/1.14 1st half for his career, so he's pretty much doing what Johan Santana does... 58 K, 15 BB. He's taken Losses this season in games where he's gone 7.0 with 1 ER and 7.0 with 3 ER, both against the Braves.

I'll gladly take him off anyone's hands and give them both Lee and Volquez for their troubles.

[freeling_prideful]

Santana was ONCE a second-half pitcher. Whether he still is, that's debatable.

Look at 06, no drastic split (pre-ASB: 2.95 ERA/1.00 WHIP, post-ASB: 2.54/0.99). And then in 07, we actually have a reverse split. He was 2.75/1.03 before, 4.04/1.12 after. The last time he followed the mediocre-pre ASB, dominant-post ASB pattern was in 2005, 3 years ago.

Now admittedly the 4.04 ERA (07 second half) is a tad unlucky given the 1.12 WHIP, but he did also give up 16 HR/100 IP, which is not a good rate at all. Like I said in my earlier post, his strikeouts mean that his ratios won't collapse completely (in the second half last year he had 110 K/98 IP).

But it seems clear that calling Santana a second-half pitcher is pretty much an illusion now. Back in 04-05, he was usually a second-half pitcher b/c it would take him awhile to get a feel for his changeup. He'd struggle badly in April but start turning it around in May and June, before really revving the engines starting in July. But now he's a veteran pitcher and he doesn't need as much time to fine-tune his stuff, so he really basically comes out of the gates w/ his complete skill set. And as I and many other people have pointed out, his fastball velocity has declined from averaging around 93 to averaging right around 90. In other words, there is an actual, noticeable difference in his game--and that means you shouldn't expect the same statistics or the same statistical trends to carry over from 3-4 years ago when he was a different pitcher.

EDIT: This isn't to say that I dislike Santana or expect him to be a bad pitcher. I'm just saying that you shouldn't expect a second-half where he posts 2.5 ERA/1.00 WHIP. At this point in his career, it's better to assume he will give you something like a 3.1-3.2 ERA/1.15 WHIP with a lot of homers allowed. He's still going to get a lot of K's, he's not going to walk a lot of people, and he will win games once the Mets really get their offense humming. But if you look at him vs. Brandon Webb, I would absolutely take Webb. Webb's offense is clicking right now and should continue to do so, so I see him making a run at 25 wins this season (and I'm almost sure he will end up with more than Santana). Webb also will throw more IP, so his low ratios (I'd peg him to finish around 3.00, 1.10 w/ very few homers allowed) impact your team more. He obviously won't K as much, but he could get up to 170-190 K in his 220-240 IP, which is still really big. Webb's GB tendencies also mean he will have fewer games where he gets rocked--Santana gives up homers, so one unlucky game where he gives up 2 or 3 could mean 5-6 ER pretty easily.

[SpecialFNK]

i dont think anyone is saying Santana is bad, but hes not performing as expected. i didnt draft Johan but i traded for him early on. i was thinking i was going to be getting the performance from Johan that others have gotten from Lee. Johan going to the NL was supposed to be an easier league, i was expecting someone who would dominate. i was expecting someone who at this point of the season would have attleast 2 games(maybe more) with 0 ER, but he hasnt even had 1.
i want to see the numbers he had in 2006, not 2007.

[northjersey78]

I just dealt him in a 3 for 3 package deal - I don't have the faith that he'll be elite this year.

[J35J]

Santana isn't the Santana of a few years ago...his fastball isn't what it once was and his slider is a notch down as well. With that said he is and will be a top 3 SP for the next few years but he isn't the end all be all #1 in my mind anymore. This has nothing to do with his stats, which are good, but if you've seen him pitch over the years you know that his stuff isn't what it once was. He's still a stud....I'm just sayin'