## Revised TOP 25?

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### Re: Revised TOP 25?

Yanks_Baby wrote:Season wide, we'll review the stat line as a whole for a standard 5x5 H2H league.

No; roto-based contributions. I don't have any point equivalencies on this computer, so I found one on the web: http://razzball.com/how-do-you-value-fa ... l-hitters/

We’ll set position scarcity aside for a second to look at the composite stats for the BAO hitter in 2007: 67 Runs / 14 HR / 65 RBI / 6 SBs / .277. The closest player equivalent to these stats is Luis Gonzalez.

We used the final standings of our fantasy league to understand the impact of each statistic by looking at the standard deviations between teams’ totals. While it would be better if we had more league standings on which to base these standard deviations, we still feel this is superior to building ratios off team averages because it takes into account that some statistics have larger percentage gaps between teams vs. others. This is most evident when looking at HR vs. SB – while the average team in our league average 1.69 HRs to 1 SB and the BAO has a HR:SB ratio of 2.33:1, the observed impact on a team was actually 1:0.77 or that a HR has more value (not even counting the R/HR/RBI/AVG implications) to a team’s rank in the standings than an SB.

The ratio for these stats based on our analysis was: 3.3 Runs / 1 HR / 2.8 RBI / 1.3 SBs / .003 AVG. Points are credited based on these ratios (a point actually equals the above ratio * 4.6) after subtracting the BAO’s stats.

Okay, let’s do two comparisons to show this works in action.

Eric Byrnes (103 / 21 / 83 / 50 / .286) vs. Miguel Cabrera ( 91 / 34 / 119 / 2 / .320)

This is an interesting one as it asks that inevitable question – how much are SBs really worth? Is it worth the addition 48 SBs to sacrifice those HRs, RBIs, and AVG that Miguel Cabrera provides? Let’s look at the points comparison of R/HR/RBI/AVG:

Runs: Byrnes 2.4 to 1.5
HRs: Cabrera 3.95 to 1.55
RBIs: Cabrera 3.95 to 1.43
AVG: Cabrera 3.48 to 1.01

Counting just these stats, Cabrera is about twice as valuable as Eric Byrnes (12.89 to 6.39).

But Eric Byrnes’ 50 SBs is huge given the average team only had 162 SBs in our league. A total like this could let you dominate SBs or focus on non-speed guys when filling out other positions (say, taking Khalil Greene’s 27 HRs instead of J. Lugo’s 33 SBs).

Eric Byrnes’ 50 SBs equates to 7.25 points in our scale while Cabrera’s 2 SBs equate to negative 0.45 points because it’s less than the BAO would’ve provided (which is 6). So factoring in SBs, Eric Byrnes is the more valuable fantasy hitter (13.6 to 12.4). But if your team was set for SBs, trading Eric Byrnes for Miguel Cabrera would be a no-brainer.

But I'm happy to use any other that you think is a better estimate, just not whoever wins the most categories wins. Because that's not how you calculate value.
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Matthias
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### Re: Revised TOP 25?

Matthias wrote:
great gretzky wrote:As for the Howard guy? I see the stats. You can't cherry pick for the first not even third of a season, and ignore the fact that he has 22 hrs in half a season, breaks 50, has a down year where he only gets 46, and is at 12 already, so he is trending for 40 again. Now, its clear he isn't a .300 hitter now, so holding him to that standard isn't fair. He breaks .260 again or gets above, then its kind of irrelevant. Youkilis is fairly ridiculous.

Who's cherry picking? Everyone knows Howard's history. I posted all the stats to date that most people care about.

Even if Howard does hit 45 HRs, if Youkilis hits 32 with similar Runs and RBIs, a handful of more steals, and 70 points better in AVG, Youkilis is the more valuable player.

For a Keeper? Really? It would seem to me that the track record has something to do with things too, given that its a keeper draft for next year. I'm sure its a lot closer than people realize, and I know the past is no guarantee of future returns based on past success. That said, 32 hrs is more of a stretch to predict, given that he hasn't broken 20 yet, let alone 30 or 40. considering Ryan also scored similar runs, and youkilis hasn;'t even sniffed howard's RBI total, I don't see it, as they are also the same age. Yea, if he hits less than .250 on the year, its closer, for sure, and Youk is a nice player to have. But it seems like the "ifs" in Youkilis' corner are a lot more subject to the unknown than the "ifs" in Howard's corner.
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### Re: Revised TOP 25?

great gretzky wrote:
Matthias wrote:
great gretzky wrote:As for the Howard guy? I see the stats. You can't cherry pick for the first not even third of a season, and ignore the fact that he has 22 hrs in half a season, breaks 50, has a down year where he only gets 46, and is at 12 already, so he is trending for 40 again. Now, its clear he isn't a .300 hitter now, so holding him to that standard isn't fair. He breaks .260 again or gets above, then its kind of irrelevant. Youkilis is fairly ridiculous.

Who's cherry picking? Everyone knows Howard's history. I posted all the stats to date that most people care about.

Even if Howard does hit 45 HRs, if Youkilis hits 32 with similar Runs and RBIs, a handful of more steals, and 70 points better in AVG, Youkilis is the more valuable player.

For a Keeper? Really? It would seem to me that the track record has something to do with things too, given that its a keeper draft for next year. I'm sure its a lot closer than people realize, and I know the past is no guarantee of future returns based on past success. That said, 32 hrs is more of a stretch to predict, given that he hasn't broken 20 yet, let alone 30 or 40. considering Ryan also scored similar runs, and youkilis hasn;'t even sniffed howard's RBI total, I don't see it, as they are also the same age. Yea, if he hits less than .250 on the year, its closer, for sure, and Youk is a nice player to have. But it seems like the "ifs" in Youkilis' corner are a lot more subject to the unknown than the "ifs" in Howard's corner.

Hm. Forgot about the keeper part; I meant in a redraft today for the rest of the 2008 season I would take Youkilis over Howard; and I do stand by that.

Youkilis does have 9 HRs on the season so far and they haven't been flukey; 30 seems within reach and reason. Also I have a half-expectancy that Howard will lose ABs near the end of the season just to prevent him from humiliating himself by K'ing 200 times. Lastly, the Red Sox as a team have been putting on a hitting clinic through the first 1/4 to 1/3 of the season... I'm not sure on the exact number, but they lead the league in hitting by something like 30 points. So any player who can hit extra-base hits will have a chance at some nice Run/RBI totals, and Youkilis is right in the middle of that.
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Matthias
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### Re: Revised TOP 25?

Matthias wrote:
Yanks_Baby wrote:Season wide, we'll review the stat line as a whole for a standard 5x5 H2H league.

No; roto-based contributions. I don't have any point equivalencies on this computer, so I found one on the web: http://razzball.com/how-do-you-value-fa ... l-hitters/

We’ll set position scarcity aside for a second to look at the composite stats for the BAO hitter in 2007: 67 Runs / 14 HR / 65 RBI / 6 SBs / .277. The closest player equivalent to these stats is Luis Gonzalez.

We used the final standings of our fantasy league to understand the impact of each statistic by looking at the standard deviations between teams’ totals. While it would be better if we had more league standings on which to base these standard deviations, we still feel this is superior to building ratios off team averages because it takes into account that some statistics have larger percentage gaps between teams vs. others. This is most evident when looking at HR vs. SB – while the average team in our league average 1.69 HRs to 1 SB and the BAO has a HR:SB ratio of 2.33:1, the observed impact on a team was actually 1:0.77 or that a HR has more value (not even counting the R/HR/RBI/AVG implications) to a team’s rank in the standings than an SB.

The ratio for these stats based on our analysis was: 3.3 Runs / 1 HR / 2.8 RBI / 1.3 SBs / .003 AVG. Points are credited based on these ratios (a point actually equals the above ratio * 4.6) after subtracting the BAO’s stats.

Okay, let’s do two comparisons to show this works in action.

Eric Byrnes (103 / 21 / 83 / 50 / .286) vs. Miguel Cabrera ( 91 / 34 / 119 / 2 / .320)

This is an interesting one as it asks that inevitable question – how much are SBs really worth? Is it worth the addition 48 SBs to sacrifice those HRs, RBIs, and AVG that Miguel Cabrera provides? Let’s look at the points comparison of R/HR/RBI/AVG:

Runs: Byrnes 2.4 to 1.5
HRs: Cabrera 3.95 to 1.55
RBIs: Cabrera 3.95 to 1.43
AVG: Cabrera 3.48 to 1.01

Counting just these stats, Cabrera is about twice as valuable as Eric Byrnes (12.89 to 6.39).

But Eric Byrnes’ 50 SBs is huge given the average team only had 162 SBs in our league. A total like this could let you dominate SBs or focus on non-speed guys when filling out other positions (say, taking Khalil Greene’s 27 HRs instead of J. Lugo’s 33 SBs).

Eric Byrnes’ 50 SBs equates to 7.25 points in our scale while Cabrera’s 2 SBs equate to negative 0.45 points because it’s less than the BAO would’ve provided (which is 6). So factoring in SBs, Eric Byrnes is the more valuable fantasy hitter (13.6 to 12.4). But if your team was set for SBs, trading Eric Byrnes for Miguel Cabrera would be a no-brainer.

But I'm happy to use any other that you think is a better estimate, just not whoever wins the most categories wins. Because that's not how you calculate value.

I'm not going to use an evaluator that classifies Byrnes as worth more thaqn Miggy!

We don't need an exact calculator. By season's ends it will be rather clear which player is better. If not, then we'll finmd some means of a tie breaker.
Yanks_Baby
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### Re: Revised TOP 25?

Yanks_Baby wrote:I'm not going to use an evaluator that classifies Byrnes as worth more thaqn Miggy!

We don't need an exact calculator. By season's ends it will be rather clear which player is better. If not, then we'll finmd some means of a tie breaker.

Anyone have category values/factors left over from this year's draft we could use?

I don't want to just do an eyeball and say, "Hmm... this guy looks better." This stuff is measurable.
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Matthias
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### Re: Revised TOP 25?

Matthias wrote:
Yanks_Baby wrote:I'm not going to use an evaluator that classifies Byrnes as worth more thaqn Miggy!

We don't need an exact calculator. By season's ends it will be rather clear which player is better. If not, then we'll finmd some means of a tie breaker.

Anyone have category values/factors left over from this year's draft we could use?

I don't want to just do an eyeball and say, "Hmm... this guy looks better." This stuff is measurable.

If it;s not painfully obvious at the end of the seasopn, to the point where there is no doubt and it can't even be considered eye balling because of how clear it is, THEN we'll find a scoring system. If there's the smallest it of doubt we;ll find a scoring system. But let'sw nopt worry about it now./
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### Re: Revised TOP 25?

Matthias wrote:
Youkilis does have 9 HRs on the season so far and they haven't been flukey; 30 seems within reach and reason. Also I have a half-expectancy that Howard will lose ABs near the end of the season just to prevent him from humiliating himself by K'ing 200 times. Lastly, the Red Sox as a team have been putting on a hitting clinic through the first 1/4 to 1/3 of the season... I'm not sure on the exact number, but they lead the league in hitting by something like 30 points. So any player who can hit extra-base hits will have a chance at some nice Run/RBI totals, and Youkilis is right in the middle of that.

it's why we play the game. I know the sox and he in particular as good. But when he hasn't sniffed the numbers that he would need to be on par with howard, provided howard is north of .250 and 40 or more home runs, I'm taking the guy who has done it on more than one occasion. Let's see what goes down now that rollins is back. youkils' dongs haven't been flukey, but at some point extrapolating from that is dangerous. and he would need, some big improvements in RBI to make it equal. Or something like .330 or .340.
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### Re: Revised TOP 25?

hot4tx wrote:
Even though he is 32, Berkman would find a way in to the top 10.

From today forward for the remainder of the season, Berkman is not a top-10 player IHMO.

He was in that 15-20 range before the season started. Even when (if) he goes back to something more in line with his career numbers he should finish the season at around .330/120/45/120/12. Hard not to find a place for him in the Top 10 next year with a line like that.
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### Re: Revised TOP 25?

I'll give it a quick shot:

1. Hanley
2. Pujols
3. Arod
4. Wright
5. Braun
6. Utley
7. Holliday
8. MCab
9. Berkman
10. Fielder
11. Rollins
12. Howard
13. Ortiz
14. Johan
15. Upton
16. Phillips
17. Hamilton
18. D. Lee
19. Webb
20. Crawford
21. Chipper
22. Reyes
23. Soriano
24. Hart
25. Sizemore
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### Re: Revised TOP 25?

Dan Lambskin wrote:how has Hanley Ramirez not been mentioned yet?

Well he was already the consensus 2nd or 3rd pick in most leagues.
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