LBJackal wrote:Last year the team combined for 27 saves and you're saying ONE PLAYER who is young, unproven, and had a 6.00+ ERA last year can save more than the entire team did last year? I'm not buying that at all. I don't think you understand how few save opps their closer, even if he holds the job all year, will receive. Usually it's about 80% of the opps. The rest are blown saves which occur in the 8th, etc, which aren't even realistic save opps for strictly 9th inning guys. 80% of those 27 saves is ~22 for a guy who theoretically will hold the job all season, assuming the bullpen is as efficient as last season. I highly doubt any Tiger will save more than 20 games this season, unless he pulls a Gagne and has the role for the whole season.
I know it's nice to think that the Tigers will have a good closer just because the team is better offensively, but they don't HAVE a good closer, they have 3 mediocre relievers who are being thrown into a closer competition of sorts. If Rodney is healthy all season, and retains the closer role all season, and cuts his ERA in half from last year, he will be lucky to crack 20 saves. That's best case scenario. And those three things are very unlikely to all happen. Do you have any reason to believe one of their closers will even approach 30 saves, or is it just wishful thinking? Any evidence to back it up?
First of all, we have actual major league players this yr, so that 119 loss team last yr pretty much doesnt tell me a thing about what they are going to do this yr. Unless you dont think that upgrading over half the offense and plugging the defensive holes on defense, wont get us any more save opps. 27 combined saves from last yrs team tells us nothing about this yrs chances, although you did put a lot of effort into the 27x.8=22 argument, it simply started from a misconception.
Now, about my comment - I said IF a DET closer holds onto the job. Its a pretty big IF at this point too. I think all 3 have the ability, but the experience is a whole nother problem.
I will turn it back on you: Do you have any evidence to think that Detroit will not improve on last yrs 27 save opps performance? Surely you dont think that after all the upgrades we have made that this team will once again lose 119 games do you?