The earliest I would even not make fun of someone for taking Ellsbury next year is the 7th round, maybe higher an OBP league.
Crawford's and Reyes' draft position has always been based upon scarcity and promise.
Everyone has been waiting for the last 3 years for Crawford to really break out powerwise. After 2005 when he hit 15, it was thought, "Ok, he's getting into his power years... he could be a 25HR, 60steals guy" with good average, great runs, and good RBIs. It was a pretty unique skill set. And that never happened. At this point, I think people draft Crawford high because they're used to doing so, not that he actually gives you that kind of value.
With Reyes, three straight years of 60+ steals, and last year's 78, is pretty tough to ignore, especially at a kind of thin SS position. It was also thought this year that the Mets offense would be pretty decent so his Runs and RBIs would be high.
And both of these were being drafted high when steals was really rare, rare enough that they could single-handedly put you into the top 3 in a league. This year there's Bourn, there's Ellsbury, there's Hanley, there's Gomez, there's Ichiro ... stolen bases as a category is much deeper and so each steal is much less valuable.
So no, Ellsbury is not a 1st/2nd rounder next year. You're welcome to him if you want him, though.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.