MTUCache wrote:I think it's rather obvious that this works better in H2H than it does in roto... in H2H any given week the worst it can hurt you is two points, while giving you huge advantage in two others, thereby giving you close to a wash (i.e., if it does hurt you, it's not significant). By just barely reaching any minimum IP requirement, you can have a strong advantage in ERA/WHIP over your opponent, but, with a couple of bad outings by your closers you can be behind in all categories as well. For my money, it's not all that much more effective than just drafting a normal team and benching all but your ace and closers unless you need counting stats at the end of the week... it's essentially doing the same thing, but not gaining that 3rd-6th round pick you would have spent on pitching.
Likewise, in a standard (5x5) roto, even if you have below average starting pitching (none drafted before the 12th round), you can still finish with around 40 pitching points in a 12 team league (around 30 in a 10 person league) as long as you have one of the better bullpens. Punting Wins and Ks pretty much drops you down into that range anyway, and if you're not getting max-points in the other categories you're dead in the water.
The comparison that I use is matchplay vs. stroke play golf. If all it's going to cost you is one hole, then you have no problems going for the green in two. But, if it could cost you several strokes (and therefore the whole match), it's a much better play to just lay it up and go for the birdie instead of the eagle. "Go big or go home" is the mantra of those who's "medium" isn't enough to win tournaments.
For my money, I don't see it... at least going into the season (and for the first third really). Any advantage you think you get by spending those extra couple draft picks on hitters (3rd round? 5th round? Maybe you include a 10th rounder in there too?) really doesn't get your offense that much better. It's still completely possible to draft a very potent offense and a good rotation. Add in a few good FA/WW picks through the season and with very minimal investment you can field a pretty competitive staff. Now, if you're halfway through the season, and already tanked in W/K, then I can see punting them and trading your ace for a speed guy or something... the speed guy may get you a couple of points in steals (or a power guy in HR), but I would be hard-pressed to think that I couldn't gain 2-3 points in W/K just by smart managing in the second half.
Anyway... any advantage you get from it is slight, at best, and you could definitely be hurting your team by trying this. I'll stick to keeping a couple of aces on staff and a couple of spot-starter guys. Along with a deep bullpen, I don't think you can beat this combination.
Great post. Just to clarify, I didn't go into the draft with this strategy. I didn't even consider it until I lost Pedro and really took a good look at my remaining SP'ers. I wouldn't recommend the strategy unless you are able to draft/acquire a tremendous offense.
For example, from the draft I selected
C - Vmart (3rd round)
1B - DLee (5th round)
2B - Weeks (9th round)
3B - Atkins (4th round)
SS - M Young (7th round)
OF - Holliday (1st round)
OF - Sizemore (2nd round)
OF - Granderson (6th round)