wrveres wrote:Thanks GTWMA ...
how are you projecting? Three year averages or just logical guess?
I think the problem with holds, is it truly depends upon the managers. Do they have a fast hook or not?. Do they have a solid Lefty in the pen to rely on? Also, only a few teams have that 8th innning guy. I understand that holds can come anywhere from the 5th on, but projecting them seems like a pain in the ass.
In My 16tm NL only game. we counts holds and saves. i currently have Worrell.. Stanton .. Valverde and my sole closer Kolb. Everysingle on I got off the wire. Stanton was a trade toss in.
IMHO, If you can't get one of the big guns, Lidge, Mota and the likes, I would wait and not even draft the position until very last.
This is why it's taking so long!
Sorry for not sorting before I pasted. Like I said, it's a work in progress. (BTW, if anybody has projections from one of the pay sites, I'd be interested in how mine compare)
I start with a 3 year average that is heavily weighted towards the most recent year (I found that correlations across the years drop dramatically after one year).
I then look at a number of factors, including:
Changes/make-up in pitching staff (e.g., Lidge is going to get more opportunities with Dotel closing now). This also includes the starters and closers and what I call the "contrast"--if you have 5 righty starters and one lefty set-up guy, guess who's going to get some extra chances for a hold.
I also look at some team information. Team win projections and past year's of team holds give you an idea about opportunities and managerial tendencies (for this I also look at data on mangerial pitching tendencies, like quick hooks, 1 batter appearances, etc.).
I use these just to factor in whether to bump up or down 5-7 holds off of the projection, unless there's a major change.
I agree with the strategy you outline. I try to grab one guy that I think I can count on for 20+ holds in rounds 15-20 somewhere in my 16 team, 25 round draft. Then in rounds 20-25, I'll pick up 2 more. After that, it's waiver city as roles adjust. Then, by mid-season I'm usually riding 2-4 guys home.
Keep in mind that many top holders also have high K rates, and low WHIP/ERA. They are also top picks for closers, which can give them great trade value. I've used holders to close many a 2-1 or 302 trade deal.