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If you are looking for at least 2 standard deviations,
then you need .150 wOBA above average (roughly 200 SLG
points). But, that's only to tell you that he is
above average, and certainly not that the whole 200 is
indicative of anything. Basically, about 20% of that
is "real". But, that's for 50 PA in April. Spring
training must be even less, say 10% of the 200 SLG
jump would be real.
That is, much ado.
Ender wrote:This is a really hard thing to judge because you have to decide which data sets you want to look at. If you look at players with 1000+ major league ABs I bet you see very little correlation. My guess is if you look at players who have not played all that much that if they show a big step up in spring training it does correspond to the season because those are the types of guys who actually are growing significantly as hitters from year to year.
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