Secret Avatar wrote:I dunno, guys. Seems like the Shane Victorino hype might be getting out of hand. He stole 4 bases -- yes, 4 -- in 2006 despite over 400 at-bats. He came out of nowhere in 2007 to steal 37. Ten times as many as he stole in 2006 on only a few more at-bats. Just think about that. Plus, he missed time last season with injuries that affect his running game.
Two words: Davey Lopes.
Victorino did steal 183 bases in 2600+ AB's in the minors so to say his stolen bases were "out of nowhere" is not only untrue but pretty foolish. You don't get nicknamed the Flyin Hawaiin for nothing!
Davey Lopes came along as the Phils new baserunning coach in 07 and he worked wonders for Victorino and the Phils running game as a whole. Not only were they more committed to running and being aggressive on the bases, but they were more successful at it too. This is evidenced by Victorino's fluctuation in SB%. In the minors he stole 183 bags and was caught 69 times, a success rate of 73%. Last year with Davey Lopes he stole 37 but was only caught 4 times, an outstanding success rate of 90.2%.
As you stated, he did miss time late in the year with ankle and hamstring injuries. If you look at his split stats and SB by month you'll see he only stole 5 bases (in 26 games) in August and September combined, while in April-July he stole 7-9-7-9 respectively. He basically stole 37 bases and didn't have his legs 100% for the last two months of the season. I do expect he'll miss time here and there with injuries because he plays so hard but to not mark him down for another year of 35+ sb would be a big mistake.