OneLoveBoomer wrote:Whatever the "research" is, I do think there is something to the "hot hand" in the short term. If, on a Tuesday or Thursday, I decide to add another batter in an H2H league to keep up with an opponent, I have often had great success with sorting by stats from the last 5 days. I recommend this for sure. Shelton was good for this a couple years back
I wouldn't sit Wright in favor of Encarnacion. One potential difficulty I'll be dealing with this season, however, is what to do with Lastings Milledge. In a league where I'm full and he's on my bench, I'd love to work him in. Will I put him in for Thome or another similar type player when they're in an awful matchup, like against Sabathia or some such pitcher? Yeah probably.
I guarantee that any statistically sound study of your past efforts would show that you lost as often as you won, and on net gained nothing. I have no doubt that many people believe in the hot hand. In fact, we are genetically wired to see it. But, a TON of sound science shows it's nothing more than the same types of patterns you see in coin flips.
Keep in mind that when you sort on recent stats, you may be finding many things that are NOT hot hands. If a guy is playing against teams with lousy pitching staffs or in parks that are good for offense, you may besimply finding those guys, rather than truly playing hot hands.