Last year Colorado were considered an out-of-this-world awesome fielding team, and yet Jeff Francis had a BABIP of .321. Now is this an example of him being really really unlucky with that defense behind him, or do I have the wrong impression of BABIP?
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Their team BABIP was .298 which was above average. One season's worth of BABIP for a pitcher is just too small a sample size, so i would think he was just unlucky. I'd assume closer to .300 next year regressing closer to league average, as Francis hasn't demonstrated any special ability to consistently post above or below average BABIPs.
This isn't too different than the D-Rays last year. TB pitchers as a team had an MLB worst .343 BABIP. Yet with this horrible defense, how come James Shields managed to post a .282 BABIP, but Kazmir had a .333 BABIP? It's all in just a small sample size and Shields luckily benefitting from better D than Kazmir.