GotowarMissAgnes wrote:BronXBombers51 wrote:GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Two years ago he had 35 and 121

Four years ago he had 36 and 106.

Over the last 4 years he's averaged 43 and 128.

You tend to trend downward since he's now 32.

It's conservative, but it's hardly unbelievable.

No, not unbelievable at all. But it just seems that every one of their projections is pretty conservative. It's not for players over 32, either. Even younger guys like Hanley, Reyes, Utley, Holliday, Crawford, etc. all seem to regress.

If you are looking at the projections in the book, you have to remember that those are the 50th percentile projections. They are very accurate for rate stats, imo, but less accurate for counting stats. For the counting stats, iirc, using the onine stats at the 67-75 percential generally is more accurate.

I don't have the book, I'm just looking at the website. Initially I was looking at the individual player cards at the weighted mean line, but then Ender said that I should look at the player forecast manager...so that's where I've been looking now. Is the book different? Should I get the book?

Honestly, I'm a bit confused on how this all works. What is the difference between the projected stat line on the PFM as compared to the line on the individual player cards (which list the numbers for all the percentiles as well as the weighted means)?

I'm pretty new to this stuff. Lots of numbers.