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Which draft pick is the best to have?

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Re: Which draft pick is the best to have?

Postby High Heater » Wed Feb 27, 2008 10:16 am

I like picks 10-14 in a 14 teamer
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Re: Which draft pick is the best to have?

Postby Ender » Wed Feb 27, 2008 10:43 am

#1 is always the best pick, number 12 is always the worst pick. baseball HQ did a study on it and you never 'catch up' because the biggest talent gaps are in the first 10 players or so and then it levels out.

As for where I actually prefer to draft, i hate the very middle and I hate the very ends. I'd prefer to be 3 or 4 picks off of an end because I can let players go and still have a good shot of getting them on the rebound pick. Some people prefer the ends because they can 'control the draft' but that is hogwash, especially in the 14 team leagues I play in. Even if you force a closer run the only closers that go would have been guys that would be gone by your next pick anyway, you didn't really accomplish anything.
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Re: Which draft pick is the best to have?

Postby J35J » Wed Feb 27, 2008 10:58 am

Ender wrote:#1 is always the best pick, number 12 is always the worst pick. baseball HQ did a study on it and you never 'catch up' because the biggest talent gaps are in the first 10 players or so and then it levels out.

As for where I actually prefer to draft, i hate the very middle and I hate the very ends. I'd prefer to be 3 or 4 picks off of an end because I can let players go and still have a good shot of getting them on the rebound pick. Some people prefer the ends because they can 'control the draft' but that is hogwash, especially in the 14 team leagues I play in. Even if you force a closer run the only closers that go would have been guys that would be gone by your next pick anyway, you didn't really accomplish anything.


Yup, this is how I see it. Nicely said, Ender!
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Re: Which draft pick is the best to have?

Postby Bloody Sox » Wed Feb 27, 2008 11:33 am

Ender wrote:#1 is always the best pick, number 12 is always the worst pick. baseball HQ did a study on it and you never 'catch up' because the biggest talent gaps are in the first 10 players or so and then it levels out.

Logically, this does make sense (even though it totally contradicts my preference). Whenever I calculate dollar values based on projections, it is apparent that the dropoff between one player and the next is very much a function of where in the draft you are. The difference between the first and last pick in the 1st round is always bigger than the 2nd round which is always bigger than the 3rd round and so on.

If you just look at auction dollar values from fantasyauctioneer.com, you'll notice that the gap between Arod at #1 ($50) and Crawford at #12 ($38) is $12. The difference between Braun at #13 ($37) and Carlos Lee at #24 ($29) is $8. Then the gap in the 3rd round is $5, and so on. You basically see a 50% shrinkage in the gap in each round. Thus, it is always better mathematically to go with #1.

Of course, the above is based on probabilities and projections... which don't always hold true to form. I'll stick with #10 :-)
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Re: Which draft pick is the best to have?

Postby BronXBombers51 » Wed Feb 27, 2008 11:53 am

Bloody Sox wrote:
Ender wrote:#1 is always the best pick, number 12 is always the worst pick. baseball HQ did a study on it and you never 'catch up' because the biggest talent gaps are in the first 10 players or so and then it levels out.

Logically, this does make sense (even though it totally contradicts my preference). Whenever I calculate dollar values based on projections, it is apparent that the dropoff between one player and the next is very much a function of where in the draft you are. The difference between the first and last pick in the 1st round is always bigger than the 2nd round which is always bigger than the 3rd round and so on.

If you just look at auction dollar values from fantasyauctioneer.com, you'll notice that the gap between Arod at #1 ($50) and Crawford at #12 ($38) is $12. The difference between Braun at #13 ($37) and Carlos Lee at #24 ($29) is $8. Then the gap in the 3rd round is $5, and so on. You basically see a 50% shrinkage in the gap in each round. Thus, it is always better mathematically to go with #1.

Of course, the above is based on probabilities and projections... which don't always hold true to form. I'll stick with #10 :-)


This year is unique in that, at least in my opinion, there is a dropoff from #1 to #2. I'm curious...what would the dropoff from Wright/Ramirez/Holliday etc. at #2 be compared to Crawford at #12?

My initial feeling is that if you can't get #1, a pick towards the back end is a more desirable pick.
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Re: Which draft pick is the best to have?

Postby Ender » Wed Feb 27, 2008 12:02 pm

Using my personal rankings (not $ values as I draft not auction) for the first two rounds in a 14 teamer.

#1 pick gets 66.6 points
#2 pick gets 58.5 points
#3 pick gets 58.5 points
#14 pick gets 52.6 points
#12 pick gets 55.1 points
#11 pick gets 54.1 points (actually less than #12 in this case)
#10 pick gets 53.7 points

(note I didn't include #13 because a pitcher was involved and my system handles them differently than hitters)

Then you take into account that again in the 3rd round the early picks will bring back more marginal value than the 4th round early picks and it just grows with time.

The value of players get closer and closer every round and the early picks always gain more value than the late ones because of this.
Last edited by Ender on Wed Feb 27, 2008 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Which draft pick is the best to have?

Postby mkooljr1 » Wed Feb 27, 2008 12:07 pm

Ender wrote:#1 is always the best pick, number 12 is always the worst pick. baseball HQ did a study on it and you never 'catch up' because the biggest talent gaps are in the first 10 players or so and then it levels out.

As for where I actually prefer to draft, i hate the very middle and I hate the very ends. I'd prefer to be 3 or 4 picks off of an end because I can let players go and still have a good shot of getting them on the rebound pick. Some people prefer the ends because they can 'control the draft' but that is hogwash, especially in the 14 team leagues I play in. Even if you force a closer run the only closers that go would have been guys that would be gone by your next pick anyway, you didn't really accomplish anything.


As has been already said by other posters, this is exactly correct. The one thing i'll add is that it depends on your league. If you're playing in a competitive league, #1 is best, then #2, etc. However, in a league with many casual owners, a later pick might be preferable because a player is more likely to fall to you where you could get excellent value even in the 1st Rd. Then you get a better player in the 2nd compared with if you had drafted 1st. I always love having like the 10th pick and then scooping up my 4th most valuable player at 10th or something, because the other owners don't know accurate player values. However, i'm not sure if the extra value you pick up in the 1st and 2nd would still be enough to close the value gap had you just drafted 1st overall.
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Re: Which draft pick is the best to have?

Postby Bloody Sox » Wed Feb 27, 2008 12:13 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:
Bloody Sox wrote:
Ender wrote:#1 is always the best pick, number 12 is always the worst pick. baseball HQ did a study on it and you never 'catch up' because the biggest talent gaps are in the first 10 players or so and then it levels out.

Logically, this does make sense (even though it totally contradicts my preference). Whenever I calculate dollar values based on projections, it is apparent that the dropoff between one player and the next is very much a function of where in the draft you are. The difference between the first and last pick in the 1st round is always bigger than the 2nd round which is always bigger than the 3rd round and so on.

If you just look at auction dollar values from fantasyauctioneer.com, you'll notice that the gap between Arod at #1 ($50) and Crawford at #12 ($38) is $12. The difference between Braun at #13 ($37) and Carlos Lee at #24 ($29) is $8. Then the gap in the 3rd round is $5, and so on. You basically see a 50% shrinkage in the gap in each round. Thus, it is always better mathematically to go with #1.

Of course, the above is based on probabilities and projections... which don't always hold true to form. I'll stick with #10 :-)


This year is unique in that, at least in my opinion, there is a dropoff from #1 to #2. I'm curious...what would the dropoff from Wright/Ramirez/Holliday etc. at #2 be compared to Crawford at #12?

My initial feeling is that if you can't get #1, a pick towards the back end is a more desirable pick.

I don't think its really that unique - usually there's a consensus Top 1-2 that is considered a tier all its own. Looking at the same auction values as I used above, Reyes is #2 at $48, then there's a big drop to Pujols at $44 and Wright/Howard at $42. So only a $4 difference between #4 and #12. The lesson of course is that the values are not distributed in an even fashion, but on average over many seasons and drafts I bet they are (which is probably what Ender's study proved).

Using the same auction values above, you are right that you are better off not picking at #4 and holding off until later in the first round (assuming you don't get A-Rod). The best combination seems to be picking 11th or 12th. Wright at $42 plus one of the $30 guys at #21 would be worth $72, while picking 11-14 or 12-13 gets you $76 worth of value. Obviously, you'd need to calculate your own values to know what the best combination is for you.
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Re: Which draft pick is the best to have?

Postby Bloody Sox » Wed Feb 27, 2008 12:17 pm

Ender wrote:Using my personal rankings (not $ values as I draft not auction) for the first two rounds in a 14 teamer.

#1 pick gets 66.6 points
#2 pick gets 58.5 points
#3 pick gets 58.5 points
#14 pick gets 52.6 points

Then you take into account that again in the 3rd round the early picks will bring back more marginal value than the 4th round early picks and it just grows with time.

The value of players get closer and closer every round and the early picks always gain more value than the late ones because of this.


Right, but as Bronx said, the drop from your #1 to #2 is pretty significant (8 points) - bigger than your gap from #2 to #14. If you showed me your values for #15-28, I'd be willing to bet that #13 and #16 is worth a good deal more than #2 and #27. Then the difference between #26 and #41 (3rd round) won't be that much bigger than for #44 and #51 (4th round).

So if you can't get the #1 pick, you might be better off waiting until the late 1st round.
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Re: Which draft pick is the best to have?

Postby Ender » Wed Feb 27, 2008 12:20 pm

Bloody Sox wrote:
Ender wrote:Using my personal rankings (not $ values as I draft not auction) for the first two rounds in a 14 teamer.

#1 pick gets 66.6 points
#2 pick gets 58.5 points
#3 pick gets 58.5 points
#14 pick gets 52.6 points

Then you take into account that again in the 3rd round the early picks will bring back more marginal value than the 4th round early picks and it just grows with time.

The value of players get closer and closer every round and the early picks always gain more value than the late ones because of this.


Right, but as Bronx said, the drop from your #1 to #2 is pretty significant (8 points) - bigger than your gap from #2 to #14. If you showed me your values for #15-28, I'd be willing to bet that #13 and #16 is worth a good deal more than #2 and #27. Then the difference between #26 and #41 (3rd round) won't be that much bigger than for #44 and #51 (4th round).

So if you can't get the #1 pick, you might be better off waiting until the late 1st round.


Those were actually the values of the 1st and 2nd round picks combined. So the 14th pick got significantly less than the 2nd pick. The drop off gets smaller with time, not bigger. The gap between #2 and #12 is 7.8, gap between #17 and #27 is only 4.1.

The gap between #2 and #14 in my system is 10.3 points. To get that same gap from pick #15 you have to go all the way to pick #62. So with my numbers taking the 2nd player in the draft and the 62nd player in the draft you get the same value as the 14th and 15th. That is just a huge difference.

Now obviously the reality is probably different than the numbers suggest there since player stats are so fluid. But there is no way I'm passing up the early picks to get a late pick. Around pick 8 there is a drop so maybe passing pick 8 to take like pick 13 or something might make a little sense if you like being on the ends.
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