Bloody Sox wrote: KCollins1304 wrote:
Bloody Sox wrote:
- AL East: Yankees (Posada can't repeat that year a la Lowell, Matsui/Damon/Posada/Jeter/Abreu/Rivera are another year older, rotation is full of question marks. Joba needed as a setup guy, who knows what you'll get if they make him a starter).
You talk about the Yankees like they are the only team where players get older every year. I can play the same aging game with the Red Sox, Manny/Ortiz/Lowell/Wakefield/Schilling/Varitek are all another year older as well. The AL East is going to be a race within 3-4 games just like it has been for the last couple years. The Yankees played horrible in the first half last year, as in they were under .500 until July 10 last year. Damon/Matsui/Abreu underperformed for most of the year. A regression from A-Rod and Posada will be matched by Abreu/Damon/Matsui returning to their '06 numbers. Also, Melky and Cano have another year of experience. As far as Joba, maybe you don't realize that he started the entire year last year until he was called up to the Yankees in relief. This was all done to limit his innings while allowing him to contribute, he isn't some complete unknown in the rotation. He had a phenomenal year going from A ball to MLB.
Wow - you managed to be more defensive than I was
I said nothing about how close the race would be or anything of that sort. I was simply pointing out some reasons why I think the Yanks won't reach expectations. Some counter points:
- Last I checked, Joba didn't start in the majors, so he is a complete unknown in that role regardless of his A-Ball stats. Same is true of Buchholz, so this isn't a slam. Plus the fact that he'll almost definitely be needed in the pen means the Yanks have a rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Hughes, and Kennedy.
- I hadn't even counted Pettitte, Mussina, or Giambi in the "old count". So that's a total of 9 Yankee starters (out of 15, counting the closer) at or over the age of 34, many who are already showing signs of decline. Given that Schilling is done, that leaves only 4 Red Sox starters over the age of 34.
- I don't know where you see this magical resurgence coming from Damon or Matsui or Abreu any more than I could reasonably say that Manny or Varitek are going to revert to their 2004-2005 forms (though I am hopeful about Manny).
- Ortiz is younger than A-Rod at only 32, though I don't see either of them declining - you'll note I said nothing about A-Rod.
- Agree completely on Cano and Melky, just as I do with Ellsbury, Youkilis, and Pedroia.
-Joba is going to start out in the bullpen to keep his innings down, but he will be starting by at least the 2nd half. He needs to throw at least 150 innings to work up his arm strength for years to come. He has a lot more value in being a starter.
- Ortiz may not decline this year, but I don't think his knees will allow him to be an elite hitter for more than 3 more years.
-My magical resurgences come from their 2nd half numbers(AVG/SLUG/OPS):
My main point was that they won't be as bad as they were in the 1st half when the Yankees were under .500.
I wasn't in the Red Sox are overrated camp to begin the discussion, I think they're pretty comparable to the Yankees. You were the one to call the Yankees overrated. I'm fine with the Yankees flying a little more under the radar than usual.
Last edited by KCollins1304 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.