bigh0rt wrote:One HR per 18.88 AB at Home vs. every 25.31 on the Road.
Yeah like I said, I would have expected a larger discrepancy. Why does this go against Phillips but not some other guys? How about Holliday? 13.08 at home and 28.09 on the road. Or Jimmy Rollins? Or David Wright?
bigh0rt wrote:How's this for a split? While Phillips has always hit Lefties well (.293/.338/.472 career), last season his line vs Southpaws was (.341/.378/.606 -- .984 OPS), while he was still pretty sub-par against Righties (.262/.310/.428 -- .737 OPS). I think he has about the same chance at batting .341 against Righties in 2008 as Ryan Braun does batting .450 against Lefties again.
This statistic WOULD matter IF Phillips had more seasons under his belt to show it was truly a statistical anomaly. You're pretty much measuring up last season vs. the one before (where he hit .299) What's making that discrepancy look bigger than it really is was his year in 2003 where he hit under the Mendoza line in like 100 AB's. Besides, what is so impressive with .341 against lefties for a righty? Last season, Wright hit .361, Hanley hit .399, Miggy hit .364, ARam hit .395. Torii Hunter and Carlos Lee had pretty significant discrepancies as well. This can really be a long list so what's the point of going on?
bigh0rt wrote:There's a reason Bill James is projecting him to hit 23 HR, CHONE predicts 22, and Marcel predicts 21, with his SB projections being between 21 and 25, and an AVG in the .270s. The chance of him living up to his 2nd Round ADP is very slim, IMO.
I don't have that much faith in predictions to the point where I'm going to trust them if no statistical date support it. Besides, a lot of things can happen to a player where statistic's won't help predict an up/down swing in numbers.
Since you're mentioning Bill James, let's see what he predicted for some Red Sox players for last year:
Papi: James - .285-47-138 in 601 at-bats................Actual - .332-35-117 in 549 at-bats
Ramirez: James - .305-37-118 in 512 at-bats...............Actual - .295-20-88 in 483 at-bats
Drew: James - .283-24-82 in 499 at-bats.................Actual - .270-11-64 in 466 at-bats
Lowell: James - .273-18-77 in 502 at-bats.................Actual - .324-21-120 in 589 at-bats
Almost all projections are just guidelines based on a person's bias. Gotta take them with a grain of salt most of the time.