Bloody Sox wrote:
After looking at my SS rankings, I really don't like what I see:
Tier 1: Hanley, Reyes, Rollins (all Top 8 and out of reach if you draft late in the 1st round)
Tier 2: Jeter, Guillen, Tulowitski, Tejada (all overvalued except Guillen)
Tier 3: Furcal, Young (Furcal is interesting, Young on the decline)
Tier 4: Greene, Renteria, Cabrera (I don't want any of these guys as my starting SS)
Tier 5: Hardy, Escobar, Drew, Peralta, Lugo, Theriot
- Thoughts on the tiers?
- I don't see any big rookies or unknown sleepers coming out of nowhere (unless you want to hitch a ride on Crosby
- Guillen looks like a decent target for where he's being drafted
- Do any of those Tier 5 guys look interesting?
--- Hardy is only 25 (which I didn't realize)
--- Drew finished strong last year
--- Peralta put up decent numbers last year--- What can Escobar do this year with Renteria gone?
WHAT TO DO???
Using the composite projections on MLB and Buser's data on what it takes to win, and a few other sources, I did a standings gain point look at SS. Here's what it suggests:
Yup, Tier 1 has the big 3, all projected to total 13-16 SGP over replacement.
Tier 2 is a little harder to draw a line. You could make an argument for Tulo and Jeter on their own (SGP of 7), with Guillen, Young, Furcal and Tejada all clustered between 4.5 and 5.5. Call them 2A and 2B.
Then, you have Greene, Peralta, OCab, Renteria, and Lugo clustered at 1-2 points in Tier 3.
There's about a point drop then to the next set, with some guys who could jump because of their youth or who have shown flashes of better play: Hardy, ACabrera, Drew, YEscobar, Theriot and YBetancourt.
I think the big question is if you get shut out of those top 9, do you grab one of the guys at Tier 3, more proven vets, but with significant weaknesses or in decline, or take a risk and grab one of the younger guys, less proven, projected to do less, but maybe more likely to give you a pleasant surprise. I might be inclined to grab two of those bottom guys and pair a power guy like Greene or Peralta with a speed demon to create a composite player that could be strong. Hate to waste a roster spot like that, but it could help you be competitive at this position.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."