Bloody Sox wrote:tgalv wrote:i used to be more enamored with position scarcity but i think what it really comes down to is just picking the best players. if you somehow had the foresight last year to draft arod, hanley ramirez, ordonez, phillips, bedard, chris young, beckett, valverde, game over. you win. doesn't matter if you botched up the rest of the draft and had the rest of your team be bums. i also say screw a lot of the pre-ranks. they are useful as a guide but a lot of it is just groupthink and just because someone is "supposed" to go in the 4th round and you take a chance and pick him in the second round, doesn't mean you're dumb and should be ridiculed. if you go back after the season and look at the the preseason consensus, you'd be laughing about how bad "everybody" was off a lot of the time.
all that being said, i would try to make some solid early round picks. last thing anyone needs is for their 1st and 2nd round draft picks to completely flame out. then you can really be screwed. if you've at least got some solid players then you can at least do some work during the season to build a contender.
Overall I agree with your post, but if there is a guy that you know will be there in round 4 because that is where he is "supposed to go", then it is foolish to use your second round pick on him. You are just sacrificing value. It is fine to reach a bit on players because you think they will far exceed expectations and don't want someone else to snatch them up early, but if you go too far with it you will handcuff yourself too much.
Great point and counter-point by both posters. If I think someone is ready to make a jump and start performing at a high level (Let's say Dice-K), you almost have to reach to be able to draft the guy. If I just follow Average Draft Positioning (ADP), chances are I'll miss Dice-K, and I'll lose out on what I believe is a great value pick.
These situations are all about how much you value a player. If the guy you like is being drafted on average in the 4th round, but you think he can put up 2nd round production (Ex. Manny Ramirez), then don't be afraid to draft him in the 3rd. But Sox is right, if you pull the trigger too early, you lose out on that value. Draft Manny in the 2nd round, and great, you just got a possible 2nd rounder in the 2nd round. Not too much value gained there. Don't be too afraid to take risks on draft day, but don't go nuts either.