BALCO All-Stars wrote:Thanks!
Quick question though...there's a LOT of talk about how Upton's and Magg's AVG should regress this year based on their BAPIP from last year (Upton: MLB leading .393, Maggs 5th: .381). But you don't hear talk about Holliday regressing and he was 6th in BAPIP last year: .377. Thoughts?
If a player can sustain a high BABIP over a number of years then the odds of him regressing are relatively small. Holliday is young, has been approving for several years, and has had a BABIP of .333 and .351 the last two years. It seems like Holliday is joining the group of great hitters that, when they put the bat on the ball, will get hits to a greater degree than the average ML player.
In contrast, Upton does not have a proven record that he can sustain a .390 average on balls in play (almost no one can). Ordonez's is also a huge outlier comapred with his other years, going back from 2006 his BABIP; .315, .312, .291. Ordonez is most likely going to come back to the pack in '08.
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike