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The Cow wrote:I say Rowand could steal 25. The Giants will be trying to manufacture runs, I would think that they would try to run more. However, Rowand is a poor bet to score a 100 runs, IMO.
in10s wrote:Lets look at his stats:
Year team G SB
2004 CHW 140 17
2005 CHW 157 16
2006 PHI 109 10
2007 PHI 161 6
We are talking about 25+, that is, 50% more than he ever did before!! That doesn't seem reasonable to me.
So, I looked at some of the free projections listed in the thread at viewtopic.php?f=7&t=322625, they all have Rowand at single digit in steals. Projections are always a probability range, so even if someone projects Rowand at 10 steals, there is some probabilty he will break 20 or 25.
But I can't see putting more than a 1% probability on getting 25. If you want 20+, based on 2004/2005 and a better situation to run in SF, I can almost see that. But still that is probably around a 5% bet.
If you draft him based on the assumption that he gets 10 SB, you can then be happy with anything over if he does better. But to me the odds are way too long to take him based only on the assumption that he will get into the 20s.
CadensDad wrote:I think Rowand can steal 25, but I still wont draft him.
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