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Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:01 pm

But he isn't a masher who should go in the 1st round without the steals either. If Crawford only stole 30 bases this year for some reason he wouldn't be a 1st round pick. When you are in a system that devalues SB you have to adjust your draft order to reflect it. I still like Crawford in H2H, I just like him after guys like Soriano/Sizemore maybe Beltran/Lee instead of in front of them.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:54 pm

stepsinsc wrote:
Bloody Sox wrote:
mkooljr1 wrote:if your H2H league is still using the same 5x5 categories, why would his value be any different? obviously if it's not 5x5, or it's points, it totally depends on the scoring system

It makes a huge difference. In a H2H league, steals are not valued as highly for several reasons, a lot having to do with the fact that it is hard to predict when a guy will get his steals - they tend to come in bunches, so if you put too much stock in a speed guy you could get burned. In roto, all you care about is 6 months worth of total stats - you don't care if a guy gets 2 steals a week for 26 weeks or 26 steals in two months and none in the other 4 months.


Yeah but Crawford isn't just a "speed guy." He's a runs, batting average, and steals guy who will also help you regularly in RBIs and HRs. I agree that his steals, like most, occur in bunches. But he isn't just a Juan Pierre or Willie Taveras type whose value is solely derived from steals.


CC is not as extremely one dimensional as a Pierre or Taveras but still, the meat of his value is tied to SBs. They come in bunches and are generally tough category to maintain year after year.

I think CC's power is the main thing. He is very fairly valued in the 2nd round at this point but if he can bust out 20 HRs, then you struck gold.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby pappymojo » Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:07 pm

while his steals may be streaky (by the way, can anyone confirm that with some statistics?) his average and his runs will be very consistent, which is very important in H2H leagues. I took crawford with the tenth pick of the draft last year and won my league.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:29 pm

RocketsDWM wrote:Why does CC have more value than guys like Sizemore or Ichiro?


He hits for a significantly higher average than Sizemore and he steals more. He hits for more power than Ichiro, steals more and gets more RBI.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Lofunzo » Fri Feb 22, 2008 3:05 am

Yoda wrote:He is very consistent and people are waiting for his power peak which should come soon.


The problem that I have with that is that, with some increased power, his steals will probably go down. If the power increased while the steals stayed the same, he would have great value. I could easily see his power numbers not enough to make a huge difference and his steals diminishing to the point where there are much better late options.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby JakeTrain72 » Fri Feb 22, 2008 2:20 pm

Lofunzo wrote:
Yoda wrote:He is very consistent and people are waiting for his power peak which should come soon.


The problem that I have with that is that, with some increased power, his steals will probably go down. If the power increased while the steals stayed the same, he would have great value. I could easily see his power numbers not enough to make a huge difference and his steals diminishing to the point where there are much better late options.



You might see a slight drop in AVG with a power spike of 20-23 HRs but I wouldn't worry too much about his steals. Not only has he consistently reached 50 with varying ABs, he has improved his OBP in each of the last four seasons. Also if you look at the percentage of his ABs that produce extrabase hits over the past 3 seasons it is very consistent but the number of HRs, 2Bs and 3Bs vary.

2005 - 63/644 = 9.8% (33 doubles, 15 triples, 15 HRs)
2006 - 54/600 = 9.0% (20 doubles, 16 trips, 18 HRs)
2007 - 57/584 = 9.8% (37 doubles, 9 trips, 11 HRs)

If he increases his power output it will more than likely result from some of his doubles and triples becoming HRs. His improved AVG and OBP over the past three seasons has allowed him to continue to steal 50 despite seeing fewer plate appearances. A full season of ABs out of the 2 hole this season could lead to a monster season and makes him a good bet for 60+ SBs with 50 being more of a conservative estimate.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Yoda » Fri Feb 22, 2008 2:26 pm

Lofunzo wrote:
Yoda wrote:He is very consistent and people are waiting for his power peak which should come soon.


The problem that I have with that is that, with some increased power, his steals will probably go down. If the power increased while the steals stayed the same, he would have great value. I could easily see his power numbers not enough to make a huge difference and his steals diminishing to the point where there are much better late options.


He is only 26 so I don't think the drop off in SBs will come any time soon unless he is injured.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby pat189 » Fri Feb 22, 2008 2:28 pm

He said he's the most motivated he's ever been. He's been working out like a mad man and believes he is even faster now. The Tampa lineup is pretty solid, he could be in for a monster year.

No doubt I'd pick him over Sizemore,Soriano,Beltran,etc
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Fri Feb 22, 2008 2:46 pm

pat189 wrote:He said he's the most motivated he's ever been. He's been working out like a mad man and believes he is even faster now. The Tampa lineup is pretty solid, he could be in for a monster year.

No doubt I'd pick him over Sizemore,Soriano,Beltran,etc


i wouldn't take what comes out directly from the player's mouth seriously in fantasy especially when he's a first rounder. last season didn't he say he was going to try to become the #1 fantasy player?
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