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Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Nene » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:52 am

I took him 15th. Fielder went 13th. And Braun slipped to 21.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby JakeTrain72 » Thu Feb 21, 2008 11:32 am

This is one reason why I love fantasy sports. You bring up Crawford and you have an instant debate. Most people that have been playing fantasy baseball over the past three years either love this guy or feel he is one of the more overrated players.

I am one of those guys that loves Crawford and his value this season. He has improved in each of the last three seasons and yet his draft position has slid from late 1st (9-12) to early to mid second (12-16). Doesn't seem like much, but it is possible to come away with MCab/CC or Howard/CC or Fielder/CC or even Pujols/CC this season. That's a solid way to begin your quest for a 2008 championship in my opinion.

I think 20 HRs is within reach though 18 is a better forecast. As for his RBIs, he'll need some luck to get 95+ and that luck will be how many RBIs he gets with those HRs because he will be batting second. I think his lineup and getting more ABs out of the 2hole will finally see him attain 100 runs this season with the potential for 115. As for steals and average he's consistently good in those cats and they are not effecting his value this year.

A lot of people have an issue taking a #1 OF that doesn't get 100 runs and rbi with that high of a pick. Factor in having 3 SS being taking in the first round and Holliday moving up into the top 10 and you end up seeing crawford going later.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby mkooljr1 » Thu Feb 21, 2008 12:16 pm

The answer to this question is very simple: the dollar value of Crawford's projected stats warrants a 1st or 2nd round pick. That's all there is to it. Looking at RotoAuthority's very reasonable projection of .302-14 HRs-72 RBIs-95 RUNs-46 SBs, Tim Dierkes calculates a value of about $30, which is good for the 10th most valuable player.

Now actually drafting him 10th overall is a different story and depends on what strategy you are trying to execute, but he's being drafted in the 2nd round because that's what he's worth! Quite simple actually.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Thu Feb 21, 2008 12:19 pm

i definitely think he can improve on 07 numbers. i remember he had some shoulder or wrist woes and a mild ankle injury last year so if he can stay healthy, why not?
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby KronJon » Thu Feb 21, 2008 1:30 pm

I'd love to get Crawford in the second round. Too bad I've had 3rd and 5th picks in my two drafts this year and he was already gone both times on my 2nd pick. I ended up with David Wright and Carlos Beltran in the first draft... and got David Wright and David Ortiz in the other.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby BillyHallDisciple » Thu Feb 21, 2008 5:32 pm

Does anyone else have further opinions on his h2h vs. roto value?
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby mkooljr1 » Thu Feb 21, 2008 5:39 pm

BillyHallDisciple wrote:Does anyone else have further opinions on his h2h vs. roto value?


if your H2H league is still using the same 5x5 categories, why would his value be any different? obviously if it's not 5x5, or it's points, it totally depends on the scoring system
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Bloody Sox » Thu Feb 21, 2008 5:55 pm

mkooljr1 wrote:
BillyHallDisciple wrote:Does anyone else have further opinions on his h2h vs. roto value?


if your H2H league is still using the same 5x5 categories, why would his value be any different? obviously if it's not 5x5, or it's points, it totally depends on the scoring system

It makes a huge difference. In a H2H league, steals are not valued as highly for several reasons, a lot having to do with the fact that it is hard to predict when a guy will get his steals - they tend to come in bunches, so if you put too much stock in a speed guy you could get burned. In roto, all you care about is 6 months worth of total stats - you don't care if a guy gets 2 steals a week for 26 weeks or 26 steals in two months and none in the other 4 months.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby Ender » Thu Feb 21, 2008 5:58 pm

I think Crawford is a 2nd round pick in H2H, I just don't like the big speed guys in that format. I'd rather have a team full of 20 SB guys. AVG also gets devalued a little bit in H2H and that is his other strength.
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Re: Why is Crawford going early to mid second round?

Postby stepsinsc » Thu Feb 21, 2008 6:58 pm

Bloody Sox wrote:
mkooljr1 wrote:
BillyHallDisciple wrote:Does anyone else have further opinions on his h2h vs. roto value?


if your H2H league is still using the same 5x5 categories, why would his value be any different? obviously if it's not 5x5, or it's points, it totally depends on the scoring system

It makes a huge difference. In a H2H league, steals are not valued as highly for several reasons, a lot having to do with the fact that it is hard to predict when a guy will get his steals - they tend to come in bunches, so if you put too much stock in a speed guy you could get burned. In roto, all you care about is 6 months worth of total stats - you don't care if a guy gets 2 steals a week for 26 weeks or 26 steals in two months and none in the other 4 months.


Yeah but Crawford isn't just a "speed guy." He's a runs, batting average, and steals guy who will also help you regularly in RBIs and HRs. I agree that his steals, like most, occur in bunches. But he isn't just a Juan Pierre or Willie Taveras type whose value is solely derived from steals.
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