I was not trying to make a precise calculation, simply an analogy of a guy who has so much value tied up in one category, if that categories exceptionalness, or "likelyhood" of exceptionalness goes away then that player will lose value. If reyes only had 40 steals a year I doubt he would go in the first round.

Not sure what your trying to argue with the projections, the ADP, draft position are all based on mathematical projections of some kind, whether the player has been in the league for 2 years or 20. If you are a believer in a certain player, or like what have read then you can tick up a player some ranks, or if you don't believe you tick them down a bit. You might ignore the actual numbers, but if your using any sort of ADP, draft ranking, or anything aside from just looking at a guys name; then your using mathematical projections, either directly or indirectly.

Does that mean projections/rankings etc are always true... of course not, and applying some measure of our own personal experience or our insight onto the original projection is a good way to determine player value, and thus your draft strategy. If people expected him to hit .280-35-100-90-5 which would be a modest improvement over his 2006 numbers(+.20 average, +5 hrs, -3rbi, +7runs, +4 steals), i doubt he would be going between 80-120(mostly around 100ish) in drafts. But most projections put him "roughly" in the middle of his 06' and '07 numbers, which corresponds pretty closely to his current ADP.