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SignGuy wrote:Harang is a huge injury risk? Cant anyone simply be considered a horse anymore?
3500 Blast From The Past
While the 3500 Club has generated much discussion, the research is not complete. I was asked by some readers to backtrack to 2002-2004 to extend the 3500 Club to see if the trend held true 5 years ago. So I did.
Here are some members of the 3500 Club who made the list more than once between 2002 and 2005. I exclude the likes of Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez since one could argue that age played a role. So this list is limited to those who were in their "prime," had a nice 3+ year spurt of success and since have hollowed off into oblivion due to excessive usage.
Jason Schmidt He was arguably the best pitcher in baseball over a 3-year span of 2002-2004. He averaged an ERA of 3.00 and struck out 200 batters in each of those years. He also happened to throw 3500+ in each of those years. Over the last three years, he's averaged an ERA close to 5.00.
Ben Sheets When he jumped onto the radar after leading Team USA to victory, he remained unknown due to the state of the Brewers switching leagues and losing 90 games a year. However, he was quite productive and finally put together a monster 264 K year. From 2002-2004 he averaged 3500+ pitches per year. He's yet to stay healthy since.
Matt Clement Remember him? The three years he played for the Cubs (umm what ever happened to Mark Prior? Kerry Wood? And what's happening now to Carlos Zambrano?) he had the three best years of his career. He averaged 195 K's and an ERA of 3.80. Since then, an ERA of 5.50 and a total of 230 innings in two years.
Kerry Wood 2001-2003 he averaged a whopping 225 K's and an ERA in the mid 3.00 range. After throwing 3500+ in each of those years he has managed an average of 44 innings in each of the last 4 seasons.
Mark Prior As if they hadn't learned from past mistakes. While Prior didn't throw more than one year of 3500+ pitches, he made such a significant jump from the minors to the majors that after one year of 3500+ he faded away. I'm starting to get worried about Ted Lilly and Rich Hill just thinking about this organization.
Russ Ortiz Ah, yes. Russ Ortiz. From 2001-2003 his ERA was in the 3.40 range. He was a big-time winner for the Giants and Braves. After throwing 3500+ in those consecutive years his respective ERA's since have been 4.10, 6.90, 8.10 and 5.50.
Freddy Garcia He had some great years in Seattle and Chicago. After throwing massive amounts of pitches for 5 consecutive years, his last two years have reeled in a season of 4.50 baseball and a half season worth of an ERA close to 6.00.
So, the 3500 Club lives on....
Ender wrote:Yeah going by innings is a bit iffier than by pitches. A guy like Santana racks up 200+ IP every year but his pitch counts aren't excessive. He only had 3345 last year.
Just look at last years cafe rankings by position and you'll see the problem.
The top 10 guys at 1B all had reasonable strong years.
The top 10 guys at 2B all had acceptable years other than Josh Barfield, though I'm sure the Lugo owners weren't the happiest.
The top 7 SS's all had good years and then you hit Furcal who had just an ok year, Hall who struggled with an ankle injury and Glaus who was a known injury risk.
The top 7 guys at 3B were all exactly as expected then you hit the Rolen/Glaus level.
The top 10 guys in the OF were mostly good, Bay and Manny being the only duds.
The top 10 pitchers.
Santana - stud
Carpenter - out most of year
Oswalt - worse in every stat than in 2006 not worth this draft spot at all.
Peavy - stud
Halladay - ERA/WHIP too a dive, not worth his draft position.
Zambrano - worse all around except W's, not worth his draft position
Webb - stud
Sheets - injured and stats slipped
Smoltz - stud
Sabathia - stud.
So out of the top 10 pitchers we had 5 that should earned their money. Other positions we generally saw 7-8 per position. If you look at the next 10 pitchers we have Lackey, Kazmir, Matsuzaka, Young, Felix working out pretty well and Myers, Bonderman, Harden, Schmidt, Schilling not being so great. Again 5 of 10 didn't work out.
Go back to 2006 now. The top 15 pitchers were.
Santana, Pedro, Peavy, Oswalt, Halladay, Sheets, Johnson, Carpenter, Zambrano, Harden, Prior, Felix
Willis, Smoltz, Buehrle.
Out of those 15 guys how many would you draft in the top 6 rounds this season, just 2 years later? Santana, Peavy, Felix and then maybe some would do Smoltz, Zambrano or Halladay. Between 9-12 of the top 15 pitchers have fallen out of the top end of the draft in just 2 years.
Top hitters on the list are VMart, Mauer, Pujols, Teix, Ortiz, Utley, Figgins, Soriano, ARod, Wright, Cabrera, Young, Tejada, Reyes, Vlad, Manny, Crawford. Just 2 years later almost everyone on this list is still being drafted high except the older SS's (Young, Tejada).
When you look at this years top 10 pitchers you can bet that at least 4 or 5 of them are going to be busts and probably at least 8-10 of the top 20 will be busts. This is exactly why I wait until the 8th or 9th round to draft pitching and why I still end up in the top 3 or so in the leagues in pitching stats every year.
Ender wrote:There is also a new tier of pitchers who are just huge injury risks that people don't seem to be worried about. Guys like Haren, Harang, Zambrano, Hamels, Beckett, Carmona are big injury risks this year and a lot of owners are going to be disappointed they drafted some of these guys (no I can't tell you which ones will actually get hurt).
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