mkooljr1 wrote:Field wrote:mkooljr1 wrote:I wrote an article about popular sleeper Adam Wainwright, who I believe is being overrated.
I don't think being a sleeper and being overrated always go hand in hand. For some players this is true, especially when their ADP starts to rise significantly. Right now, this really isn't the case for Wainwright. He seems to be pretty apporpriately valued around 150-175. I don't really see a problem with drafting him in that area, especially when the SP selection begins to tail off.
agreed, i probably used the wrong word in calling him overrated. however, if his ADP showed he was being drafted earlier, then i don't think he'd be a sleeper anymore since he'd then NEED to improve on last year's stats to justify his draft slot. that no longer is a sleeper in my opinion. so basically, if you draft him in the range you mentioned, but think you have a sleeper who could post a mid 3's ERA, then i think you could be disappointed. the post right below yours sums it up perfectly- he's expecting a 3.50 era, but using no support from the stats, and basing it on his trusty eye
Except you are not accounting for the fact that he is only 25 and already showing a dramatic overall improvement in the second half 07. Expecting a 3.50 ERA is not that unreasonable. He really doesn't need to do improve that much to repeat 07 even.