League Statistics - Winning #s

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Re: League Statistics - Winning #s

I think it would be very useful to have not only the winners information, but the info for the top 4 teams in the standard league. You don't have to win any cats to win a league, and the cat winner's information often reflects an excess or outlier, and can be misleading. You don't need 250 SBs to be competitive in the cat.

I know, for example, that I need about 144 points to win my 6x6 16 team league. So the relevant target is what a team that finishes 5th in the category had. In most leagues you will find that getting 67 to 75 percent of the maximum points wins the league. So, getting the information on the teams that are about 1/13rd to 1/4 of the way from the top is important.

In addition, I think it would be nice if the "marginals' were available. How many home runs does it take to advance one point in that category? Hoe many SBs? Again, in my league, I take the difference between 3rd place and 13th place and divide by 10. That tells me , on average, how many HRs, SBs, RBIs, etc. I need to gain a point in that category. Excluding the top and bottom makes it more relevant, because of the outlier problem at top and bottom.

Even if that info can't be in Matt's article this year, his article is a great help to fanatsy managers. Thanks, Matt!
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GotowarMissAgnes
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Re: League Statistics - Winning #s

MTUCache wrote:Hey guys... I've been pretty impressed so far with the amount of free material that this forum has brought to my attention in preperation for this years' upcoming drafts. The projections, ADP, positional rankings, etc, etc have all be fantastic.

But, I still feel like I'm missing one key piece to the puzzle before I'm finally prepared for my draft. It's not only important to know which players are going to rack up the most steals, homeruns, or saves. It's also extremely important to have an idea in your head as to how many you're going to need in order to win those categories.

What I'm looking for is a database of previous leagues and their final statistical results. How many RBIs took 1st place, 2nd place, etc. How many strikeouts did the first place team have, etc.

Obviously this is going to be dependant on the specific rosters of the leagues (whether they include MI/CI/C2, 4xSP or 5xSP, how many bench spots, etc)... but anything would be a good start to at least get me some numbers going. In particular I'd be looking for 10 or 12 team leagues which have C/1B/2B/3B/SS/OF/OF/OF/UT/SP/SP/RP/RP/P/P/P, and about 6-7 bench spots (total roster = +/- 21-23)... a typical Yahoo! setup (I think).

Mainly I'm interested in being able to tally up my projected stats during the draft, see where I'm at in relation to where I need to be, and adjust my future picks accordingly. It would be very handy to know whether I can skip over some higher ranked players (who are well-rounded statistically) and focus on guys who are specialists (in SB, HR, AVG, or whatever). I feel like this would also help me know when I can start looking more closely at picking up prospects as well.... whether I can spend my 18th round pick on an Justin Upton, or if I need to play it more safely and go after a more established veteran.

I have some Mock Draft Software that has an engine/algorithm that will estimate the total number of wins/runs/steals/rbis/whip etc... that is needed to win each category in your league based on a set of player projections and your league configuration. I recommend atleast giving that a shot.

vr, Xeifrank
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xeifrank
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Re: League Statistics - Winning #s

Rather than take the average totals from the winners to calculate how much you need to win the league, it might be more realistic if you take the average totals from the 2nd place finishers and go one point better in each stat.

Not really. You dont have to win ANY cats to win a league. You just need the highest average across all the cats.

According to MBuser two years ago that average was about 9.57. That is an average of a 3.5 place finish across all cats. So if you finish first in one cat (12 points) then you could finish 6th in another (7 points) to maintain that average.

This also shows why punting a cat in roto makes no sense IMO. If you finish last (1 point) you'd need 94 points from the remaining 9 cats, an average finish better then 3rd place. Its doable -- I've won a league where I finished last in AVG, though it wasn't due to punting -- but it just makes it that much harder.
swyck
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Re: League Statistics - Winning #s

MTUCache wrote:
mbuser wrote:http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/new ... lle_031607

there are the numbers from standard yahoo leagues last season. i'll have the 08 version of that column up within a few weeks

Oh... and one note... I don't know if you took this into account last time, but I figured I'd bring it to your attention for this year if you're planning on doing it again.

Rather than take the average totals from the winners to calculate how much you need to win the league, it might be more realistic if you take the average totals from the 2nd place finishers and go one point better in each stat.

For instance, last year you had 120 SB down as the winning threshold, but I sincerely doubt that was what was really needed to win in most leagues. In most leagues the winner of some categories (like SB) are head-and-shoulders above everybody else. It might be more accurate to say that the average second-place finisher had 105 SB, so in order to win you need to get to 106, not all the way to 120.

I'm sure I don't need to tell you, but FBB is usually ruled by dominance in many categories, and by the slimmest of margins in others. It does me no good to try and keep up with those who are completely dominating their league, when all I have to do is beat the second place guy.

Anyway... a small note about an otherwise great article. Thank you very much for linking me to this... exactly what I was looking for.

To follow up on this, I have two points:

1. Looking at the second place total in leagues makes sense, or even better an average of the top 3 teams. Sometimes the top team blows away the second place team in a category and you want to get a truer average.

2. Don't trust the Yahoo public league totals because the numbers are REALLY low - I assume because many teams in Yahoo public leagues go dead very quickly. Going by Buser's article (in an earlier post) in March 2007 using 2006 stats, he had 125 steals as the average winner total for that category in standard 12 team 5x5 leagues. In 2007 my main league (also 12-team 5x5) had SEVEN teams above 125 steals (max=163, average=125) and in 2006 we had EIGHT teams above 125 (max=177, average=126). There are similar results in HRs, RBIs, Runs and every other category. Reaching Yahoo's league best numbers will get you nothing more than middle-of-the-pack (unless you play in Yahoo public leagues).
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Bloody Sox
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Re: League Statistics - Winning #s

swyck wrote:
Rather than take the average totals from the winners to calculate how much you need to win the league, it might be more realistic if you take the average totals from the 2nd place finishers and go one point better in each stat.

Not really. You dont have to win ANY cats to win a league. You just need the highest average across all the cats.

Right, which is why he was recommending that you aim for second place across the board, as that should be good enough to win (in fact, 3rd place finishes across the board will probably win you your league 95% of the time)
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Bloody Sox
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Re: League Statistics - Winning #s

Bloody Sox wrote:To follow up on this, I have two points:

1. Looking at the second place total in leagues makes sense, or even better an average of the top 3 teams. Sometimes the top team blows away the second place team in a category and you want to get a truer average.

2. Don't trust the Yahoo public league totals because the numbers are REALLY low - I assume because many teams in Yahoo public leagues go dead very quickly. Going by Buser's article (in an earlier post) in March 2007 using 2006 stats, he had 125 steals as the average winner total for that category in standard 12 team 5x5 leagues. In 2007 my main league (also 12-team 5x5) had SEVEN teams above 125 steals (max=163, average=125) and in 2006 we had EIGHT teams above 125 (max=177, average=126). There are similar results in HRs, RBIs, Runs and every other category. Reaching Yahoo's league best numbers will get you nothing more than middle-of-the-pack (unless you play in Yahoo public leagues).

both good points -- a good qualifier for the column this season would be a reminder that the more competitive the league, the higher the numbers go, and that it's just an average. with that being said, the average public league user is generally who i am charged to "write to"
mbuser
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Re: League Statistics - Winning #s

Bloody Sox wrote:
MTUCache wrote:
mbuser wrote:http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/new ... lle_031607

there are the numbers from standard yahoo leagues last season. i'll have the 08 version of that column up within a few weeks

Oh... and one note... I don't know if you took this into account last time, but I figured I'd bring it to your attention for this year if you're planning on doing it again.

Rather than take the average totals from the winners to calculate how much you need to win the league, it might be more realistic if you take the average totals from the 2nd place finishers and go one point better in each stat.

For instance, last year you had 120 SB down as the winning threshold, but I sincerely doubt that was what was really needed to win in most leagues. In most leagues the winner of some categories (like SB) are head-and-shoulders above everybody else. It might be more accurate to say that the average second-place finisher had 105 SB, so in order to win you need to get to 106, not all the way to 120.

I'm sure I don't need to tell you, but FBB is usually ruled by dominance in many categories, and by the slimmest of margins in others. It does me no good to try and keep up with those who are completely dominating their league, when all I have to do is beat the second place guy.

Anyway... a small note about an otherwise great article. Thank you very much for linking me to this... exactly what I was looking for.

To follow up on this, I have two points:

1. Looking at the second place total in leagues makes sense, or even better an average of the top 3 teams. Sometimes the top team blows away the second place team in a category and you want to get a truer average.

2. Don't trust the Yahoo public league totals because the numbers are REALLY low - I assume because many teams in Yahoo public leagues go dead very quickly. Going by Buser's article (in an earlier post) in March 2007 using 2006 stats, he had 125 steals as the average winner total for that category in standard 12 team 5x5 leagues. In 2007 my main league (also 12-team 5x5) had SEVEN teams above 125 steals (max=163, average=125) and in 2006 we had EIGHT teams above 125 (max=177, average=126). There are similar results in HRs, RBIs, Runs and every other category. Reaching Yahoo's league best numbers will get you nothing more than middle-of-the-pack (unless you play in Yahoo public leagues).

One thing to be careful is to make sure the leagues are the same on other key parameters. How many hitters and pitchers count towards the stats? What positions? How many roster moves allowed? Games and IP allowed? I found that variations in any of these key dimensions and others can have a big impact on the winning totals.
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GotowarMissAgnes
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Re: League Statistics - Winning #s

xeifrank wrote:I have some Mock Draft Software that has an engine/algorithm that will estimate the total number of wins/runs/steals/rbis/whip etc... that is needed to win each category in your league based on a set of player projections and your league configuration. I recommend atleast giving that a shot.

vr, Xeifrank

I've been looking for your 2008 update, Xeifrank, so thanks for the link. BTW, is there anyway other than paypal that I can send a donation?

I do have one question. I input my 6x6 league settings and there seemed to be a problem with this estimation engine. Below are the averages for my league winner over the past 5 years, followed by what the software estimates:

R: 966 versus 828
HR: 259 versus 211
RBI: 932 versus 879
SB: 164 versus 123
BA: .292 versus .286
OPS: .851 versus 300(?)

Wins: 104 versus 32 (?)
Saves: 111 versus 72
K: 1260 versus 414
Holds: 83 versus 300 (?)
ERA: 3.59 versus 3.36
WHIP: 1.22 versus 300 (?)

I don't know how much of this is the data (I used the mixed league hitters and pitchers) versus the engine (the 3 "300" entries make me think there's a glitch somewhere). Where it seemed to work it was a little low on the hitting, with the RBI and BA estimates being the best ones (those values, on average, would have finished third in the league.) The runs estimate would have been good for 12th, the HR for 9th, and the SB for 6th. Saves would have been 9th compared to our league averages, while ERA was much lower than our average winner.

Thanks for this, though. It's another great addition to your work. If there's any way I can help iron out any bugs, let me know.
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GotowarMissAgnes
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Re: League Statistics - Winning #s

after a more precise collection of data this season, these are the numbers i have from yahoo standard leagues from 2007:

average numbers for 1st through 5th for each of the 5x5 cats and team roto points
mbuser
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Re: League Statistics - Winning #s

is that public leagues + private leagues? because i think most public leagues including 90% of winner leagues on yahoo are a joke when it comes to considering them as half-serious competitive leagues.
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