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Where should Santana be drafted?

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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby bleach168 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:51 pm

You're underestimating how much Santana is better than your average #1 pitcher.

For the following aces, PECOTA projects:

Sabathia 15 Wins, 215 IP, 3.51 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 179 K's
Beckett 14 Wins, 205 IP, 3.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 176 K's
Bedard 13 Wins, 194 IP, 3.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 196 K's
Peavy 15 Wins, 212 IP, 2.98 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 223 K's
Webb 13 Wins, 200 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 155 K's

Only Peavy comes close to Santana and I think Peavy should be drafted no later than mid-second round. The rest of the aces that you can get in round 4 are likely to produce much less than Santana. Now if you believe someone like Sabathia is going to repeat his Cy Young type year, I can see passing on Santana in the first.
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby Cooner » Thu Feb 14, 2008 5:03 pm

not sure I buy the drop of 0.7... that may be a useful average, but surely the amount of drop in a league swap isn't constant in ERA... I mean, I'd guess that those with higher ERAs have a larger change than those with lower ERAs.

Pure speculation here, but...

I'm guessing that the change in ERA is due to how you deal with the back of the lineup -- in the NL, the back of the lineup is worse than the AL. Good pitchers with ERAs ~3 in the AL already deal with the back of a lineup well. They get scored on by the front of the lineup. In the NL, the front of the lineup isn't a huge dropoff from the AL (again, pure speculation). So they'll continue to get the outs they should get (back of the lineup) and still get runs scored on them by the front of the lineup.

I don't know if there's enough data to do the plot I'd actually want to see.... change in ERA due to a shift in leagues as a function of ERA.
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Re: Where should Santana be drafted?

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Sat Feb 16, 2008 9:30 am

The Artful Dodger wrote:I think Johan is still a bookend 1st/2nd pick. Johan's overall numbers should definitely improve from '07, figuring in a move to the NL and to Shea, especially his ERA and WHIP and now he has the run support to make him a legitimate 20 win threat, but I think it's fairly optimistic to think he improves to the tune of an ERA in 2.20-2.30, a sub 1.00 WHIP, and 260 K, with the move being a big factor to such success.

I'd say it's Johan's durability and consistency that warrants a 1st round pick for him, but when you think about the greater depth in pitching coupled with the relative scarcity of a high-end bat, I'd still prefer to go top-heavy in hitting.

I like this approach here if he lasts that long. Have three Mets fans in my 12 teamer and I doubt he makes it past the 7th pick, but if I had 11 or 12 and he fell to me, I would take him there knowing I could probably grab one of Ortiz, Soriano, Braun or Vlad to pick up some power numbers.
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