Especially if your league is populated with hometown fans, Ellsbury will go higher than his risk justifies. Coco Crisp is still in Boston, and Theo Epstein has indicated that the Sox have no problem with a competition
in center. Admittedly, Ellsbury and Crisp do not make a natural platoon, and everyone, including Crisp, wants a deal to send him out of town. Boston mostly stood pat this winter, though, so I can envision holding onto Crisp until another need arises in the midseason, then trading him to fill the gap. Given that possibility and Francona's affinity for Crisp, I do not think you can guarantee 500 PAs for Ellsbury.