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Here's what a trade could mean to each fantasy wise,
Ball Park Factor: The Ballpark in Arlington is ranked as the top HR ballpark in the American League over the last 2 years, providing it's inhabitants with close to a 10% increase in output over the average ballpark, while Yankee Stadium is 3% below the American League Average. - Advantage ALFONSO SORIANO Managerial Effect: Buck Showalter ranked 12th out of 14 managers in stolen base attempts last year (90) - Can you blame him with that pitching staff? While Joe Torre ranked 8th out of 14 managers in SB attempts (131) - Advantage ALEX RODRIGUEZ, although Rodriguez really doesn't steal many bases (12-18)...so maybe we should say Disadvantage ALFONSO SORIANO Both are expected to be placed in prominent positions within the batting order (1-3) Team Effect: While the Rangers do have a competitive offensive team, the new Yankees will look like an all star team with Rodriguez playing 3rd base. Fantistics projects the 2004 Rangers to have a 106 Team production factor (6% above the average team), while the Yankees have a 116 team production factor (16% above the average team). More offensive production means more ABs and more RBI and Runs scored opportunities...including better pitch selections. This is a clear Advantage ALEX RODRIGUEZ
In summation, I think we will see a slight reduction in the HR output by Rodriguez (which may be mitigated by more ABs in the Yankee lineup), but a climb in RBI, Runs, and Batting Average. While Soriano may gain power numbers in the friendly confines of Arlington, his average, RBI, Runs, and SB numbers may suffer without the proper protection and managerial philosophy...this includes less ABs. Clearly ALEX RODRIGUEZ value would climb, while that of ALFONSO SORIANO would drop. If there was ever any question based on our position scarcity model (VAM), who the top Fantasy Player for your 2004 draft should be, this trade would certainly answer it. - Anthony A. Perri - http://www.Insiderbaseball.com
But I still don't think he will have a better year then arod. I mean thats why the Yankee's traded Sori for Arod.
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