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bigwords wrote:I for one totally agree with you here. The "lock up utility" argument is widely accepted and hardly ever questioned. Well, it should be. Value wise, David Ortiz has been one of the most consistent players in baseball over the last few years, returning Top 5 Player value year in and year out.
Yes, by drafting position players over DH-only players, you certainly have flexibility to rotate players into that utility spot at whim.
HOWEVER, people draft Chase Utley in the first round, and Russell Martin in the third round, not because they believe that these players will produce stats that in a positionless world, are equivalent to other players drafted around them. They target these players foremost because of the value they provide at their respective positions. Positional scarcity. Value over replacement player. Etc.
In analyzing Big Papi, the question shouldn't be: Do I want to lock up my utility slot? Rather what should be asked is this: Does David Ortiz give me a statistical value advantage at U over the player(s) that my competitors are sticking in their U slots? How much advantage -- and what's the value advantage I'd get by taking a player at another position?
Given that question, and looking at some of the data that's out there, I think there's a good case to be made that Ortiz is worthy of the #3 selection.
That said, if nobody else in your league is going to draft him until the 2nd round, well, you'd be foolish to "reach" and pick him at #3 given the opportunity to get him much later. Actually, David Ortiz is a good reason why it's better to draft a bit later in the 1st round as having the opportunity to select Big Papi in the 2nd is a good recipe for success.
eftda wrote:horatio wrote:After A-Rod and Holliday:
THis is the first I am hearing of Holliday being a number 2 overall. I would be willing to take Wright, Hammy, possibly Reyes as number 2... but Holliday? I'm looking for 30-30, .300 players with my 1st pick.
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