Try to post most of my work here this weekend. First, tiers:
Tier 1. I'm projecting this group to basically have 25+ holds, an ERA under 3.50, a WHIP below 1.25, and 50+Ks. For this tierand the others, a player may fall short of that in one category if they are significantly better in another one.
Rauch, Speier, Howry, Heilman, Broxton, Bell, Betancourt.
The only surprise here might be Speier. I'm projecting slips by Linebrink and Shields, and expect Speier to overtake Shields as the primary hold option no later than June. Post ASB last year Speier had 16 holds to Shields' 11. Shields had a 7.36 ERA after the break. He'll be much better than that in 2008, but not good enough to hold the job.
Tier 2: Basic projection of 20+ holds, ERA<3.75, WHIP<1.35, Ks>45
Okajima, Shields, Sherrill (assuming he does not become closer) Benoit, Gordon, Pena, Qualls, Fuentes.
Tier 3: (15+, <4.00, <1.35, 40+)
Bradford, Walker, Timlin, Farnsworth, Reyes, Wheeler, Janssen, Downs, Ayala, Marmol, Weathers, Riske, Marte, Franklin, Justin Miller, Feliciano, Beimel, Meredith, Rafael Perez, Rodney, Rincon, Neshek.
And a few sleepers...these are guys I would just put on your watch list after the draft. It's possible they could earn a role in ST, but more likely could step in an provide good value after an injury or in mid-season. All are projected to have ERA under 4,,WHIP under 1.3, and 40+Ks.
Jeremy Accardo (depending on the Ryan situation).
Justin Duchscherer (if not starting).
I appreciate any comments, suggestions, requests, etc. Especially like help from people who know their hometown teams well and have insight into how bullpens are being planned.
Did not yet do Zumaya or Joba, yet, because I want to do wait to see what the Yanks real plans are on Joba, and hear more about Zumaya's health. If healthy and in the pen, both would be no lower than Tier 2.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."