Ender wrote:I wouldn't take Pujols with any of my first 5 picks. Terrible lineup around him and he already said if he is in as much pain as last year he won't play through it again. I don't see him really running anymore so he loses a little value there and 1B is pretty darn deep.
Guess i will be the lone wolf here. I would take Pujols 1. Lineup protection has little impact. The odds are much more favorable of Pujols beating last year, then Arod reaching last year, which was his best year, way over his norms. .336 career versus .306. Mucher better career oba.
I don't think ARod will come close to last years numbers but the 1st round is all about getting a sure thing and Pujols simply isn't one. Sure he might be healthy all year and maybe enough of the young guys in that lineup turn it around that his R/RBI's don't suffer but why take the risk. The injury risk alone pushes him out of the top 5 in my opinion, especially given his position.
As for ARod winning leagues by himself, I strongly disagree. Hanley gave me better value with the 28th pick than the guy who got ARod at #3. Braun gave me way more value, Fielder in the 4th round was more value. The year before Holliday in the 7th round gave me more value. You aren't going to win your league in the 1st round if it is a decent league, you can only lose it in the 1st.