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talk show host wrote:#1 I may be misunderstood Iam only referring to the risk that Bruan could be devalued based on these 2 aspect I am saying in my opinion he will take "a step back" but still be a good player. just may not live to hype .
Every respected Baseball publication has referred to the Sophmore jinx as has MLB i can get more studies when i have the time..Also it is NOT etched in stone that evry player is touched by it Teahen is a good an athlete as Braun as evidenced by his ability to play CF as well as RF Hall as a ss has all the skills as Braun as he has played 2 skill positions ss & Of each has said they were distraced offensively by the position change Only suggesting it could happen to Braun ..I think it will Thanks for reply Lenny
Ender wrote:I think his numbers will regress but the extra month of playtime will hide it. Bill James projection seems high, under my scoring system he is worth more than ARod with those numbers. Late 2nd round, early 3rd round is probably where he goes, the fact he has 20 SB speed helps offset some of the risk from falling numbers elsewhere.
Yoda wrote:talk show host wrote:Hear is a list Of the 116 total winners, 87 were hitters and 29 were pitchers. By those numbers, pitchers seem under-represented, receiving just 25% of the awards. In recent years, however, pitchers have won slightly more often. Since 1995, six pitchers have won the award, compared to 14 hitters. The average Rookie of the Year season has been worth 19 Win Shares, so last year's winners were both below average in that respect; Bay had 18 Win Shares, while Crosby had 13.
So, now that we know a little bit about the 116 Rookie of the Year winners, let's take a look at how they performed in their sophomore seasons. Since Bay and Crosby are just starting their second seasons, they are excluded from this little study. That leaves 114 players left to look at (using Win Shares). Of those 114 Rookie of the Year winners ...
- 73 declined in their second year (64.0%)
- 37 improved in their second year (32.5%)
- 4 stayed the same in their second year (3.5%)
a study published In hard Ball Timeshttp://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ ... ore-slump/
As for changin positions?? Ask Billy Hall and Mark Teahen and many more that we all have seen I appreciate your commnts as I hope ypu undersyand Im not saying braun is a flop but these factors May be a cause for a setback
The study doesn't mean anything to me since it only accounts for ROY winners. Not all ROY winners are the same and the quality of the rookie pool varies greatly from year to year.
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