I also think you need to use more than 1 year's worth of data
Very, very true. I've got my draft lists from at least the last 5 years. Again the stats would be skewed to my likes/dislikes (I tend to heavily downgrade guys the first year they are in the top 2 rounds for most people, tend to rank hitters higher, and tend to downgrade closers a lot) but it might be interesting.
If someone finds the historical ADP that might be more telling so put it on here. This would be quite the project, but could end up being pretty helpful. I'd assume this will end up being a non-normal data set, so I'll try to see what type of distribution fits it best and/or will try some sort of simple ratio with constants.
I probably won't be able to do this until January, but I think it would be pretty interesting to do. I will also try to include player ages (instead of age sets) so that I can age the players each year and see if there is some cut off or cut off range when different types of players (ie power hitters vs speed vs power pitchers vs finesse pitchers vs clsoers) begin to disappoint more.