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Snakes Gould wrote:HOOTIE wrote:BitterDodgerFan wrote:dude wheres braun?
About 40 runs created behind Holliday/Wright/ and even a bigger gap with glove.
well thats not really too fair now is it?
Scooter1027 wrote:Yeah, he made the same argument in the NL ROTY thread without considering that we should be looking at RC27 (aka runs created per game). In that situation, Braun (8.4) is not very far behind Holliday or Wright (both 9.0), and he's ahead of Rollins' 6.9 (and in the context of ROTY, he's killing Tulowitzki's 6.0). I'm not arguing here that Braun should be MVP, I don't think he's even MVP of his own team. It's true that his defense wasn't good enough, and that an MVP probably should have played more of the season than Braun did. I'm only suggesting that the premise of cumulative runs created isn't a fair argument to shoot Braun down with.
HOOTIE wrote:Scooter1027 wrote:Yeah, he made the same argument in the NL ROTY thread without considering that we should be looking at RC27 (aka runs created per game). In that situation, Braun (8.4) is not very far behind Holliday or Wright (both 9.0), and he's ahead of Rollins' 6.9 (and in the context of ROTY, he's killing Tulowitzki's 6.0). I'm not arguing here that Braun should be MVP, I don't think he's even MVP of his own team. It's true that his defense wasn't good enough, and that an MVP probably should have played more of the season than Braun did. I'm only suggesting that the premise of cumulative runs created isn't a fair argument to shoot Braun down with.
RC/27 is nice, but runs created is better, because it's what has been created. A guy who created 102 runs is MILES behind in MVP consideration, regardless of rc/27. Braun wasn't there 2 months too help, bottom line. To consider a guy who made 26 errors and only played 4 moths, is one of the most ridiculous things i have ever heard.
RotoCowboy wrote:wow. all you people have fallen for the media hype. i would vote for howard before rollins. but neither (howard or rollins) would make my top 4.
someone said RC is all they look at. well, that doesn't tell the whole picture in my opinion and isn't even the main thing i look at. for me, win probability added is the best single stat to look at, but it isn't the be all end all.
NL leaders in WPA:
1. Fielder 5.24
2. Holliday 5.06
3. Helton 4.80
4. Peavy 4.79
5. Pujols 4.65
6. MCab 4.61
others of note: 9. Wright 4.09, 13. Howard 3.48, 15. Rollins 3.20, 21. Hanley 2.45
I definitely think a player has more value if his team is in a playoff race, making each of his late games that much more important, although I think actually making the playoffs is a much smaller factor. This eliminates Pujols and MCab in my mind, who are below the best 2 candidates anyway.
In the last month, Holliday was the best player in baseball. Not including the one game playoff, he had a 1.244 OPS (1st), 29 R (1st), 12 HR (1st), 30 RBI (1st), and a .367 AVG. He also hit pretty well in the playoff game, especially when it counted (though he did have that nearly costly misplay in the OF).
No surprise, but Fielder was the 2nd best player in September. He had a 1.212 OPS (2nd), 23R, 11HR, 22RBI, .333 AVG. His team was in the race for a good portion of that last month as well, and he did all he could to keep them in the hunt.
Howard was great as well. He had a 1.043 OPS (9th), 18R, 11HR, 26RBi, .260. However over the last 15 days (as the Phils were fighting to win the NL East), he had 12 R, 9 HR, and 21 RBI, batting .364. YIKES!
Rollins was more than decent over the last month, with a .875 OPS, 22r, 6hr, 18rbi, 14sb, .298. Over the last 15 days, 12 R, 3 HR, 9RBI, 4 SB, .300. Not in the ballpark of Howard, but certainly not bad.
Wright was also pretty good down the stretch, with a 1.034 OPS, 21R, 6HR, 20RBI, 4SB, .352, and this was during a playoff race for sure, but the team totally collapsed, however it doesn't appear that it was due to him.
Peavy had a pretty good September going 4-1 with a 3.20 ERA. He definitely hurt the team in the one game playoff, though if Hoffman did his job, it would have been good enough. I will count this against him, but he definitely helped his team down the stretch, and they almost certainly would not have made the playoffs if not for his very nice September. They definitely would have missed it if not for his great year, but this is true of all the candidates.
I like to look at the baseballprospectus stats as well. Amoungst hitting candidates in the NL, Wright was 2nd in VORP, and 1st in RARP. Holliday was 4th in VORP and 6th in RARP. Fielder was 7th in both VORP and RARP. Rollins was 9th in VORP and 10th in RARP. Howard was 12th in VORP and 11th in RARP. Peavy would have been just after Wright at 3rd in VORP (pushing down the other candidates one spot).
While I don't care as much about the back of the baseball card stats, certainly Holliday takes the cake there, finishing 1st in AVG, RBI, DOUBLES, HITS, 3rd in RUNS, and 4th in HRs (as well as 3rd in OPS, 1 pt behind Fielder - both trailing Chipper). Fielder also put up some flashy numbers, the 50 being the biggest one. Wright went 30/30, with over 100r, and 100rbi while batting .325. That is decent. Rollins went 30/40, led the league in runs, and set a record of PA and AB, and XBH by a NL SS (only AROD in 1996 had more), as well as being the 4th player to go 20/20/20/20. Howard didn't have the batting average, but 47 bombs is still pretty nice.
Here's how I rank them.
1. Clearly Holliday. 2. Fielder 3. Peavy 4. Wright 5. Howard 6. Rollins. (Howard and Rollins were pretty close looking at the year on the whole, but Howard was just so unbelievable down the stretch to help the Phils win, I had to give him the edge). After these 6, I'd probably go with some order of Hanley, Pujols, MCab, and then round it out with some Arizona love with Brandon Webb at 10th.
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