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masterpinky0509 wrote:Actually, last year the statistics indicate his poor season was an aberration. Given his still-great K rate (he had 200+ on the year) he should have given up fewer hits w/ a normal BABIP. Also, he didn't walk too many, so his WHIP should have been low and his ERA should have been somewhere in the 3.00-3.50 range.
That being said, he's still about a run better than that this year, so why? The biggest statistical reason is the fact that he's given up like 6 homers all year, which is incredible and hard to believe. Most pitchers give up a homer every 9 innings or so, for about 20-25 on the year. That's par for the course. Peavy last year gave up 20-something, so he wasn't particularly good or bad in that area.
Considering he has great stuff, I could see him giving up less than the normal amount of homers, but 6 all year is really almost as much an aberration as his poor performance last year.
I'd expect him to stabilize somewhere in the range of 18 homers allowed next year over 200+ innings, and for him to sit around a 2.75 ERA.
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