Pirates4Life wrote:slomo007 wrote:That is a very good article.
Hopefully Upton owners heed the advice and sell while they can...especially in keeper leagues where you might get stuck with a .260 hitter next year and you can get practically anyone back in return.
So let me get this straight.
I'm supposed to put a lot of weight in "career" minor league numbers of a kid who was a 19 year old that batted .327 in AA and followed that up as a 20 and 21 year old who succeeded in AAA a few years before most prospects even make it there? Forgive me, but I hardly think that a kid who just recently became a legal drinker has reached his peak as far as his baseball skills are concerned.
He never hit more than 18 HRs in a minor league season? OH MY!!! Did the author of the article notice that he was a 20 year old in AAA when he did it, and those HRs (in 545 ABs, mind you) were accompanied by 44 SBs and a .303 BA? Hmmmmm, I wonder if power is one of those things that develops as a player gets older.
And I'm supposed to forget the fact that he's a 22 year old getting his first extended look at major league pitching, playing every day, batting 3rd in an improving lineup, and was one of the most highly regarded prospects to come up in the last few years?
And I'm supposed to disregard the large improvement he's made in pitch recognition and both his walk and strikeout rates over the past few months? LOL, you can look at the improvement he made in that area in my last post.
Yes, a few of his rates will normalize, but improving in other areas can very easily keep him performing at a high level, and he's got a lot of room and time for improvement. He's been on the radar for so long that people forget how young he is. If he bats .300 or .310 instead of .340, so what? The kid's got a TON of talent, and he's only just starting to show it.
What he's saying, is that there is almost a 0 percent probability that his average will end up anywhere close to where it is now by this point next year. It just doesn't happen, given his babip. Soooo....he's saying that in keeper leagues you could get probably get a top 10 pick value out of him if you are willing to deal him. Why not reduce the risk and go with a more proven prospect? Of course Upton's upside is huge, but I think you're looking at his upside right now...until he develops more power. And players don't always just develop power easily.