Pedros Little Friend wrote:Yoda wrote:Maybe people are high on Kazmir because he is so dominant? He led the league in Ks as a 24 yo and has a craeer ERA around 3.50 despite pitching against Sox, NYY more than most pitchers. Not to mention he pitches on a horrible team. He is a top 5 pitcher without a doubt. Not including him on top 10 going into 08 is a complete joke.
i almost always stray from defense around here, especially when it comes to rankings because they're as subjective as it gets, but i'll draw another subjective line right now. "a complete joke" not ranking a relatively inconsistent 24 year old in the top 10 for next year? perhaps you just woke up on the wrong side of the bed, but your sarcasm doesn't quite seem warranted (and that's coming from a lover of the craft to be sure). john smoltz could be in the top 5 next year; it's a game of prediction. i'm sure glad we don't all agree on these things, otherwise i wouldn't love the cafe like i do, but there's no reason to be outright rude, especially over a disagreement of such trivial magnitude. if i called every ranking here (or even just those on this thread) that was only a few spots off from where i have them a complete joke i'd be tied up for weeks. i had kazmir 12th and conceded that he's got upside for the top 5... you think he should be there now, fine, but that's as high as i can justify putting him because i'm skeptical he'll put it all together when his walk rate actually went up last year and he's battled injuries every year in the bigs. also, his babip has always been well above league average so i don't see .341 as too much of an outlier so as to think his numbers will be much different next year because of an adjustment to that variable. also, in response to ender, he's been a second half pitcher in each of his MLB seasons. i refuse to project his second half numbers to next year. if i had done that last year, i would have dreadfully overdrafted him. additionally, someone mentioned he's on a horrible team - doesn't this help prove there's a lot of uncertainty around him? it's their defense that's especailly bad. the rays are improving, sure, but he's not gonna rack up a ton wins in that division either. and while the stats he puts up against the yanks and sox are certainly admirable, he still has to play them 38 times a year so just noting that he's played well against them previously doesn't detract from the fact they're tough lineups to face constantly.
kaz is obviously plus for fantasy in k's and in era too, he's average in wins, and below average in whip (though that all depends on you league size and configuration). i know that his whip could go way down at any time, especially because he's a young stud, but i don't see it as extremely likely for 08.
it's funny, i don't want to bash him at all - i love his upside. i'm in a keeper where i would love to get my hands on him if he's not protected. and in the heat of the moment in a march draft, would i take him over c young, haren, or dicek? quite possibly, but as a preliminary ranking, i don't quite see his upside outweighing his risk more so than for other players i have above him. i certainly wouldn't qualify my ranking as a complete joke that he's not in the top 10, especially because he's 12th...
i think it's helpful to know what people are thinking and it's great to get constructive criticism, but it sucks to be subject to rude responses for so trivial a reason. okay, defense over - phew, maybe i was the one that woke up on the wrong side of the bed...oh well. if nothing else, that helped clarify for me that i love scott kazmir, perhaps just not quite as much as many others do - and that knowledge will be useful come draft day. thanks.
He was freaking 23 yo for god's sake and he was more dominant than ANYONE ELSE IN THE LEAGUE. Most 23 yo's are still pitching at AAA hoping to get a shot at being in the MLB.
And yes, it is my opinion that leaving Kazmir out of top 10 in favor of Chris Young and Franciso Freaking Liriano is a complete joke. Please don't take it personally.