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Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

PostPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 11:22 pm
by BillyHallDisciple
Athrun340 wrote:Im not gonna go after him .. but if he falls into my lap then maybe

I dont want garret atkins on my team or the 07 first half ryan howard


Hilarious. Yeah, let's all just turn up our nose at the guy who's crushing the ball. Jeez, you people who think Braun is a carbon copy of Chris Shelton/J.J. Hardy are probably a little bit more annoying than those of us who want to have his baby. Some of you must have been burned by Garret Atkins or something and are still carrying around the scars.

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 12:12 am
by nbb23
I just found it quite amusing that the guy that is lukewarm on Braun and worried that he might turn into Atkins next year has a Ryan Braun sig :-b

I am lucky to have him in a keeper league and he will cost me a draft pick in the 20th round or so (not checked to make sure) so I am quite happy to be able to have a Top 5 3B IMO for next year!

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 4:37 am
by cards05
Athrun340 wrote:Im not gonna go after him .. but if he falls into my lap then maybe

I dont want garret atkins on my team or the 07 first half ryan howard


GTWMA and others have distinguished Atkins. And the only thing wrong with Ryan Howard is that he got injured. You should evaluate decisions not results. Nobody can predict injuries (unless we're talking Prior/Harden). Even so, Howard looks just fine as a 2007 pick.

The point is, Braun's BAPIP will go down from .380 and he'll most certainly regress. But that doesn't change the fact that he has a lot of power and speed and has the skill set to hit .300. It's easy to get caught up in the next big thing and ignore objective reasoning. Us here at the cafe generally take advantage of that and trade a guy like Chad Gaudin for J. Vazquez. But this thread has revealed a less common inefficiency that can be exploited. It appears some experienced owners are failing to consider the fact that some of these young hitters are for real. I stated earlier that I'm waiting to see how his right-handed pitcher splits turn out, but if the stats support the results, there's no reason to pass on Braun in the second or third. And as GTWMA stated, the chance of a younger player exceeding projections is higher than the chance of a 33 year old exceeding expectations. When I saw this thread, I expected some sensationalism and thought folks would be projecting Braun as a top 5 pick. Now, if things go right, it appears Braun could be quite the value pick in the 3rd -5th round.

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 6:09 am
by tinfoilxtouch
The people here comparing him to Pujols should be banned.

Pujols had the best 5-season start to a career of any baseball player. Ever. Like... out of all the major leaguers. Not just the ones that have been around since fantasy started.

Ryan Braun has about 20 HRs in 19 ABs. Good for him. I remember a guy named Chris Shelton who had a great start to his MLB career too. Sample size, people! I have no reason to doubt he'll grow into stud, but 1/3 a season also isn't any reason to count on it.

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 7:39 am
by Morneau33
tinfoilxtouch wrote:The people here comparing him to Pujols should be banned.

Pujols had the best 5-season start to a career of any baseball player. Ever. Like... out of all the major leaguers. Not just the ones that have been around since fantasy started.

Ryan Braun has about 20 HRs in 19 ABs. Good for him. I remember a guy named Chris Shelton who had a great start to his MLB career too. Sample size, people! I have no reason to doubt he'll grow into stud, but 1/3 a season also isn't any reason to count on it.


I would take him #1 with a stat line like that. :-D

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:00 am
by RynMan
Coming from someone who drafted Braun as a minor leaguer in my dynasty league, and as extremely high on the guy....I see his '08 numbers and career path following David Wright's. 25-30 HR, .290 average, with 25 steals.

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:24 am
by Yoda
tinfoilxtouch wrote:I remember a guy named Chris Shelton who had a great start to his MLB career too. Sample size, people! I have no reason to doubt he'll grow into stud, but 1/3 a season also isn't any reason to count on it.


People can compare Braun to every bust player out there but the fact of the matter is, he has way more talent than guys like Atkins and Shelton.

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 10:41 am
by GotowarMissAgnes
cards05 wrote:
GTWMA and others have distinguished Atkins. And the only thing wrong with Ryan Howard is that he got injured. You should evaluate decisions not results. Nobody can predict injuries (unless we're talking Prior/Harden). Even so, Howard looks just fine as a 2007 pick.

The point is, Braun's BAPIP will go down from .380 and he'll most certainly regress. But that doesn't change the fact that he has a lot of power and speed and has the skill set to hit .300. It's easy to get caught up in the next big thing and ignore objective reasoning. Us here at the cafe generally take advantage of that and trade a guy like Chad Gaudin for J. Vazquez. But this thread has revealed a less common inefficiency that can be exploited. It appears some experienced owners are failing to consider the fact that some of these young hitters are for real. I stated earlier that I'm waiting to see how his right-handed pitcher splits turn out, but if the stats support the results, there's no reason to pass on Braun in the second or third. And as GTWMA stated, the chance of a younger player exceeding projections is higher than the chance of a 33 year old exceeding expectations. When I saw this thread, I expected some sensationalism and thought folks would be projecting Braun as a top 5 pick. Now, if things go right, it appears Braun could be quite the value pick in the 3rd -5th round.


And that's probably right where he should be based on an overall look at his performance in college, minors, and majors, so far. I agree with you on all these points, both the likely regression and the overall value.

Still lots of baseball and an off-season before thinking about drafting Braun, but I think there's little doubt that he has the track record to put up numbers similar to Wright, Cabrera, and ARam. Both he and Upton ought to be in the conversation next spring on who to pick at 3B after ARod. On a seasonal average basis right now, fwiw, Braun is the second highest ranked 3B and ranked 4th overall.

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 11:14 am
by Athrun340
nbb23 wrote:I just found it quite amusing that the guy that is lukewarm on Braun and worried that he might turn into Atkins next year has a Ryan Braun sig :-b

I am lucky to have him in a keeper league and he will cost me a draft pick in the 20th round or so (not checked to make sure) so I am quite happy to be able to have a Top 5 3B IMO for next year!

dont get me wrong .. i love braun but im just playing it safe . .. like i said if hes there in 3rd or 4th, Ill take him but not in 1st or 2nd

I rather draft a proven veteran player than Braun

my 2 cents

Re: Where will you draft Ryan Braun next year?

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 11:43 am
by dryice
my FORMER partner was in on this "track record" thing. needed something several years worth befor felt comfortable paying thru the nose at absolute peak value..or if not comfortable enuf would wait til the guy retired.

going to go down, go down in flames, not THAT way -drowning in a swamp of conservatism..if braun stays moderately hot thru the league's adjustment period where the whole league is studying ways to get his ars out...and adjusts to the adjustments...heck, that's good enuf for me..would draft him definitely before Aramus, and, as for the others, would make an attempt to swap off for him and pocket whatever the perceived difference is.