My opinions may be covered as a die hard yankee fan who loves A-Rod and hated those fans who booed him last year. But here are a couple of key things the I think:
* Whatever Boras says now, he will negotiate with the Yankees at some point prior to A-Rod opting out.
* The Yankees have a huge financial advantage over the other teams bidding. And I don't mean the usual issues. The Texas money makes a big difference.
* Therefore, the Yankees odds are way too low on the original post.
We all know the Yankees have a financial advantage before Op-Out because of the Rangers money. But exactly how much impact does it have? Look at Boras's choices:
* Choice 1) A-rod opts out and there is an auction.
* Choice 2) Boras gets the Yankees top price before the bidding war. Add the Rangers money to that already competitive price.
Which is a higher amount? I'm no Scott Boras, but here is my guess how he is going to handle it:
* At this point of the season, Boras has to tell the world he is going choice 1. Otherwise he won't have leverage over the Yankees.
* But at some point, he will negotiate with the Yankees to get their top offer before A-Rod opts out and bidding starts.
* Then he will do what he always does, decide which choice gets Boras more money. (oops, I meant to say which choice gets A-Rod more. Surely Boras doesn't care about his fee, just his client.
So, I believe there will be real negotiations with the Yankees before the offical opt-out, no matter what people are saying today. As for what happens, after that, I have no clue. But with the financial leverage, the Yankees have better odds then what was in the original news article that quoted odds.
There is one possible twist. Does A-Rod have a real favorite place he wants to be? Finish his career with the Yankees like he has said in the past? Go to Lou in Chicago? Salivate at the Green Monster adding 50 HRs to his career? Or a southern california dream? In any of these cases, A-Rod could possibly tell Boras he doesn't care about the best money, but the best combination of money and where he wants to be. But given the way Boras works, and what we know of A-Rod, I doubt a big discount to anyone. Maybe a really small one.
The important points are above, the rest below here is how I figured the money pieces in detail. Only for those of you who are as serious as I am and don't mind cat attacks
Thanks to KCollins1304 for the reference, but I don't think the Rangers are paying $7 a year of the contract. From the mlbcontract blog KCollins provided:
When the Yankees got him from the Rangers, A-rod had 7 years/$183M remaining, the original deal for salary in those seven years was $21M, $25, $25, $27, $27, $27, $27. Texas agreed to pay $4M remaining signing bonus, and $67M of remaining $179M leaving the Yankees the remaining $112.
I can't find a reference for how the $67M the Rangers are paying was split. But I remember when the deal was done, the Yankees wanted it be able to say they only paid A-Rod $16M a year. (16x7=112) So, I'm guessing the amount the rangers agreed to pay the Yankees is: $5M, $9, $9, $11, $11, $11, $11. If someone has a source to prove me right (or wrong) please post it.
With three years left, if I am right, is Texas owes the Yankees $33M, if and only if, A-Rod doesn't opt out.
Now, lets assume A-Rod's total future contract is 8 year $30M/year contract for a total value of $240M. The Yankees can match that by offering A-Rod "only" an extension of 5 years at $32M a year. Total cost to the Yankees is $207M.
But how does this look in terms of money budgeted? The cost in long term cash flow increase for Yankees is only $160M. They already have a budget to pay him $48M over the next 3 years, with a new deal they will spend $208M. (there is a rounding error). Any other team may have budget for future free agents, but still, they have to ensure they are covering an additional $240M of actual committed funds in comparison to the Yankees needing to committ an actual additiona $160M. That is an amazing difference.
I don't know if I agree with the money budgeted arguement. But clearly, the Yankees have an either great ($33M) or amazing ($80M) financial leverage over other teams, until he opts out. You really think Boras wont negotiate to that before deciding on opt-out?