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Soriano's drop in SB

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Soriano's drop in SB

Postby Andy1234 » Thu Feb 05, 2004 1:31 am

Is there any reason to explain Soriano's drop off in SB in the second half of last year?

1st Half (April, May, June) : 365AB .288 Avg 24SB (4 CS)

2nd Half (July, August, Sept) : 317AB .290 Avg 11SB (4 CS)

Was there something I missed? Why wasn't he running more? What should we expect in 2004?
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Postby GSes » Thu Feb 05, 2004 1:35 am

Soriano hit a slump...in the final month or so he was red hot.

Soriano is very streaky but is just so valuable especially cuz he plays 2B.

I expect

35 HR
120 RBI (if he hits in a RBI spot)
110 Runs
35 SB
285 AVG

The kid is a fantasy god.
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Postby Guest » Thu Feb 05, 2004 1:35 am

I'd expect less running as I think he'll be lower in the lineup..

I'd guess -- Lofton, Jeter, Sheffield, Giambi, Bernie, Posada, Soriano, Matsui, MIKE LAMB!

He could be anywhere from 5-9th.
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Postby harry_karry » Thu Feb 05, 2004 1:41 am

As you have heard Soriano has signed a 23.2 year contract with the cubs. he will now hit a sorry 8th in the line up. A low standing for such a player.

Soriano is a good penguin name.
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Postby Andy1234 » Thu Feb 05, 2004 2:29 am

He had a SB slump?

I was trying to show that his Average was the same and that his attempts were way down. I could see it happening due to a slump if the Averages were 20 pts different, but they were the same.

On base % was only slightly better in the First half vs the Second.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 05, 2004 2:50 am

AHAHAHAAAHAHHHHHA

I had that same Harry Caray avatar on another message board for a while. Although I made it myself from a screenshot, so it's weird that somebody else has the exact same one.

That's gotta be one of the funniest SNL skits I've ever seen. The best part: "Imagine: a world with an endless supply of HOT dogs! They'd be so abundant, they'd become our currency." Hmmmm I might ahve to change my quote now. The only problem is that it might be too obscure.

LOL. If you havn't seen it, then download: Harry Caray 1997 Year in Review. It's not on the Will Ferrell SNL DVD unfortunately, but KaZaA has it for sure.

And now for something completely different:

Soriano may have had a better BA in the second half, but he had far less opportunities to steal. His singles+walks (chances to steal) in the first half were 94. In the second half, it was 63. He was stealing on 29.8% of his chances in the first half, and 25.4% of his chances in the second half. Not too much of a difference, in fact if he attempted 3 more steals in the second half, he would have had a higher SB attempt rate than in the first half. The big reasons for him having less steals were lack of walks, increase in doubles, and less ABs in the second half. I wouldn't be concerned with him for next season based on the low SB's in the second half. I would be concerned about the lack of AB's associated with hittig in the 8 hole. According to Hootie, he'll have about 126 less AB's. Based on last years SB attempt rate, he'll attempt to steal 36 times in 2004, and at an 80% success rate, that's 29 bases.

So in summation, Soriano should steal 29 bases in 2004, assuming his SB rate doesn't decrease with his change of position in the lineup (which it probably will - more people will be on base ahead of him preventig him to steal), and this also assumes he'll get just as good pitches as before (again, unlikely due to lack of protection in the order).

Taking all of that into account, I assume it will drop his chances by ~6%, thus giving him ~33 chances. At 80% success rate, that's 27 steals.

So after all of that, I predict Soriano's SB's to drop 25%, based on last years stats. Evidently, you DO have reason to be concerned about lower steals totals, but not for the reasons anticipated.

And thus ends my Hootie impersonation.

(wow, 442 words, that's my new personal record I think :-D )
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Postby GSes » Thu Feb 05, 2004 2:59 am

nice hootie impression ;-D

but i disagree, throw all the numbers around u want, and i will too in many cases.

Truth is Soriano sucks, i mean the guy couldn;t play defense if his life depended on it and he strikes out way to much. But truth is he is a fantasy god that is still young enough to improve and he was 1 HR away from 40/40 2 years ago.

OK so Soriano dosen't suck but he is awesome. And yes by the late 20's most players stop stealing, but Soriano will steal close to 40 bags this season.

Here is a great comparison to those who play fantsy football.

Soriano
=
Culpepper

Neither or really considered the best in the the real game, but in fantasy they rack up the numbers.

Soriano has major pop and he finsihed last season strong, forget the horrible post season other then Pudge who honestly played outstandingly well in last year's post season.

Soriano is stil a first rd pick and should be 35/35
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Postby GSes » Thu Feb 05, 2004 3:06 am

hmmm that might have sounded like I was saying Soriano sucked..

OK Alfonso Soriano is a stud Baseball player.

Take him in the 1st round with ease.

Soriano will duplicate last year's numbers with possible more RBI's if he hits lower. SB's should be the same mabe a little lower. Still a safe 1st rd pick.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 05, 2004 3:08 am

Most of my post was just me being bored and playing with stats. I certainly don't expect it to be accurate. But if Soriano plays the same next year as he did last year, they would be somewhat accurate. If he plays better, chances are he'll get more than 27, if he plays worse, he'll presumably get less than 27. Like I said, a move to the 8 slot likely reduces his SB chances by 25%, so to assume that his SB's will not decline and not stating reasons is being rather naive.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Feb 05, 2004 3:13 am

One more thing: you say that he will get more RBI (likely because more people will be on base ahead of him) but you don't accept the fact that those very people will be in his way, essentially preventing him from stealing more often?? Combined with over 100 less AB's, I don't see any logical reason for him to dulpicate his 35 steals unless he miraculously increases his running speed and/or OBA over the winter.
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