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Ted Williams vs. Barry Bonds

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Re: Ted Williams vs. Barry Bonds

Postby thedude » Fri Jul 06, 2007 1:07 am

joshheines wrote:Very tough call because as somebody described earlier, do we consider the what if factor.

My heart says Williams, my head says Bonds.

Bonds, to date, has had approximately 26% more plate appearances than WIlliams. There are a number of factors. First, Williams missed three prime years (24-26) in the war. Second, the seasons back then were 154 games. Over the course of Williams' career he had the opportunity to play about 130 less games than Bonds did. Third, Williams missed more time in his mid-thirties to war.

It's unfair to Williams, but adding 26% to all of Williams career counting numbers (HR, RBI, runs, etc), would place Williams with the same number of plate appearances as Bonds. This is unfair to Williams because he missed three prime years, which, for the purposes of this argument have been replaced by his average year. Nonetheless, the information provides useful and accurate as Williams actually averaged more HR per PA in his later years than he did in his prime years. Only the RBI calculation would really change much (and only by 37 RBI) .

Williams (with appx 26% added): 3338 hits, 660 doubles, 89 triples, 655 HR, 2261 runs, 2313 RBI, 892K, 2539 walks, .344 AVG, .482 OBP, .634 SLG
Bonds: 2901 hits, 597 doubles, 77 triples, 751 HR, 2196 runs, 1972 RBI, 514 SB (vs. 141 CS for a 78.5% rate), 1517K, 2512 walks, .299 AVG, .445 OBP, .609 SLG.

So what does the evidence reveal? Williams was a better contact hitter as evidenced by AVG; however, Bonds had a better eye and more power as evidenced by OBP-AVG and SLG-AVG.

Not so fast, right. We're comparing guys from two distinct eras (even assuming Bonds never used steroids). Williams WARP3 (which calculates wins above replacement across baseball eras) was 171.7, Bonds is at 242.9. For comparison, generally a WARP of 100.0 indicates a HOFer. Now, let's add in the fact that Bonds had 26% more PA than Williams, and let's recalculate the WARP3 to assume Williams would have produced according to his average in the additional appearances. Even with the additional 26%, Williams lands at 216.3, a lot lower than Bonds, by about 2.5 seasons worth.

Sorry folks, Bonds wins.

Well WARP uses that god awful stat FRAR, while EQA doesn't. No doubt Bonds was a better fielder in his prime, but i still don't like using that stat. If we could go back and make zone ratings for Williams then that would be a different story.

However EQA doesn't. Bonds career EQA (adjusted for all time) is .357, while Williams is .364. So Williams was the better offensive player. BTW Ruth has a career EQA of .368, so using that measure Williams is a closer in offensive impact to Ruth then Bonds is to Williams.
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Re: Ted Williams vs. Barry Bonds

Postby joshheines » Fri Jul 06, 2007 1:14 am

Greatest of hitter, without considering defense or position, all-time, by the numbers:

Value per out (EqA) - note .260 is league average
1. Babe Ruth - .368
2. Ted Williams - .364
3. Barry Bonds - .357
4. Lou Gehrig - .346
5. Albert Pujols - .342
6. Frank Thomas - .341
7. Mickey Mantle - .340
8. Rogers Hornsby - .338
9. Mark McGwire - .336
10. Stan Musial - .333
11. Manny Ramirez- .332
12. Mel Ott - .330
13. Jimmie Foxx - .329
13. Ty Cobb - .329
13. Edgar Martinez - .329 (the guy on the list I'm most surprised to see)
13. Jason Giambi - .329
17. Willie Mays - .328
17. Johnny Mize - .328
19. Jim Thome - .327 (surprised? Go look at some of his OBP and SLG from his prime)
19. Joe DiMaggio - .327
21. Hank Aaron - .326
21. Hank Greenberg - .326
23. Frank Robinson - .324
23. Alex Rodriguez - .324
25. Jeff Bagwell - .323
26. Tris Speaker - .321

Of those 25 guys here is the list of who had the greatest career with the bat only as calculated by the number of runs he scored versus a league average hitter during the course of his career. Whereas EqA is an average number, BRAA (Batting Runs Above average) is a counting number. All numbers are adjusted for all-time.

1. Barry Bonds- 1468
2. Babe Ruth - 1377
3. Ted Williams - 1162
3. Hank Aaron - 1162
5. Stan Musial - 1101
6. Ty Cobb - 1092
7. Willie Mays - 1068
8. Lou Gehrig - 991
9. Mickey Mantle - 956
10. Mel Ott - 936
11. Frank Robinson - 926
12. Frank Thomas - 924
13. Rickey Henderson - 894 (Notable addition to list)
14. Rogers Hornsby - 880
15. Tris Speaker - 854
16. Jimmie Foxx - 774
17. Honus Wagner - 728 (Notable addition)
18. Eddie MAthews - 721 (Notable addition)
19. Mark McGwire - 717
20. Edgar Martinez - 707
21. Manny Ramirez - 706
22. Gary Sheffield - 700 (Notable addition)
23. Jeff Bagwell - 699
24. Joe Morgan - 691 (Notable addition)
25. WIllie McCovey (Notable addition)
26. George Brett - 665 (Notable addition)
27. Ken Griffey, Jr. - 662 (Notable addition)
28. Reggie Jackson - 647 (notable addition)
29. Mike Schmidt - 645 (notable addition)
30. Jim Thome - 641
31. Alex Rodriguez - 635
32. Joe DiMaggio - 620
33. Johnny Mize - 606
34. Jason Giambi - 579
35. Hank Greenberg - 473
36. Albert Pujols - 437

The first list is probably who the better hitter was, the second list is probably who had the better career. The second list is probably the one you conjure up in your mind when you compile your greatest list. I'm sure I left great players off of both lists. Feel free to throw a name out and I'll let you know where they fall.
Notable additions were compiled from players on the top 100 list for total career plate appearances.
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Re: Ted Williams vs. Barry Bonds

Postby HOOTIE » Fri Jul 06, 2007 2:27 am

4Pack wrote:[Please tell me you are just joking. If not that, then you might want to dig a little deeper in to some facts.

Yeah I am joking! I would love to have a teamate that plays when he wants to play ala Randy Moss.[/quote]
lmao, what a pathetic argument.[/quote]

And being a Bond's supporter (I am assuming) would know alot about being pathetic.

Okay...that was tacky...and I apoligize. I have been trying very hard to not stoop too the level of Bond's and his dwindling number of supporters.

Your right....since Bond's is about to break the record..we should all make nice and and say he is the greatest human being/ballplayer that ever walked the face of the earth. And...his supporters deserve a badge of honor for sticking with this lowlife throughout his career.

Dang...their I go being tacky again.[/quote]

How did this thread turn anti Bonds?

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Btw, Teddy in 19 seasons only played 145 games 6 times out of 154. Teddy must not of wanted too play alot?
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