Julio should've lost his job last year... but didn't because the manager was Mike Hargrove, a manager I know well.... Grover always stays loyal to his teams closer.
predicting 36 for Julio is even too much b/c first, we don't know what Lee Mazzilli is going to do w/ the situation if/when Julio starts blowing saves in chunks like he did last year.
And, as was said before, offense does not = save opportunities. the fact is their pitching staff is still horrendous... that's not just starters, I mean the whole staff. there's no logical reason whatsoever to think that he will be given enough opportunities to get a larger number of saves.
No one was really there to take the job last year, but even though DeJean is terrible, he still has experience, and I guarantee he will be given a look at some point in the season because of Julio's tendency to try to through it through the wall instead of pounding people inside like he should.
Julio is one of the most painful closers to watch because of the good counts he wastes and the walks he gives up. if he wants to be successful, he needs to learn how to pitch, something he hasn't done yet. while, again, Dejean has very little left in the tank, he still has that sinker and will have an opportunity.
the Orioles are starting to resemble the Rangers and I think that translates into 75 wins at best this year.
When a closer gets 45 saves, it means that he is a good closer, a great one actually. Only the greats reach that number, a lot of guys get around 35 here and there (Kelvim Escobar in 2002, and even Rocky Biddle last year), but getting 45 means not blowing your opportunities at all... something Julio won't do because he is far from being considered an elite closer.
but if you want Julio... go ahead. I've had him the last two years and have monitored his stats closely... I'm just trying to give you a reasoned analysis of why he's probably going to spiral lower down the list of quality closers. he comes at too high a price, when better, more efficient, talented pitchers could be had for less.