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Snakes Gould wrote:if you're referring to BA's projected lineups and rotations by 2010, thats a joke. i checked out a few teams and they obviously didnt put much thought into it. i posted my opinion because i honestly really didnt hear much about lester before his mlb debut. he was touted as a GREAT prospect, but a solid lefty starter which is always helpful. i realize he was in fact pitching with cancer. he started off pitching pretty much then faded toward the end of last season. i posted my opinion with the hopes that i was indeed missing something and someone could correct me, but im beginning to feel i was right.
Noggy wrote:I quoted you but mentioned the cancer because I changed my mind about exactly what I was going to say as began typing that post. Geez, it's not a big deal.
If scouts and experts should be the basis for this agruement, then why did you bring up K:BB ratio in the first place? Your first two posts in this topic were mostly about his stats and now you say they don't matter after their compared to someone like Ted Lilly.
I compare Lester to Lilly because I watched Lilly a lot when he was with the Yankees and watching Lester last year, it reminded me of Lilly in 2001. I know Lilly was older but I'm not trying to say Lester's upside is Ted Lilly, but I think he'll be closer to Lilly than being a frontline starter.
FalcoAtL wrote:I brought up the stats to show that he really was pretty good in the minors. In no way did say they are the tell all of a pitcher's potential. They're useful, but are far from the final word.
I think that scouting reports from scouts are much more reliable.
I wasn't using the stats to refute the Lilly comparison. I personally just don't see the similarities in their pitching style aside from the fact that they're both left handed pitchers. Lester throws in the low to mid 90's while Lilly only gets to about the high 80's. Lester is really more of a power pitcher, while Lilly is more finesse. Lester relies on his cutter for SO's and GB's, while Lilly looks to induce FB's.
Noggy wrote:You've been arguing that he's a frontline starter, so why even bring up the stats the show that he's been "pretty good"?
Noggy wrote:Like I said, Lilly has a similiar ratio in the majors so even if Lester maintains his ratio in the majors it doesn't do anything for the point you're trying to make.
Noggy wrote:Then why did you didn't you say that in the first place instead of jumping into this topic throwing around his strike out and walk numbers? You're right that stats don't always translate to the majors, but you make it sound like scouts are always right. Kris Benson was drafted 1st overall you know.
Noggy wrote:I seem to remember Lilly throwing low 90s when he first broke in. And there's not such a huge difference between their GB/FB ratios that would make them incomparable. Lilly also has a quite healthy career 7.68 K/9 and I think Lester will have a tough time matching that.
FalcoAtL wrote:You made it seem like his stats weren't good at all. I wasn't using them as a reason to believe he has ace potential, I was merely showing why I disagreed with the opinion.
They're different pitchers, with different types of games.
so I brought up the scouting reports, which really have been the basis of my opinions all along.
Noggy wrote:And don't say it's because Lester was young. Those numbers are blown away by guys like Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes and Yovani Gallardo at the same age. I NEVER said his minor league numbers were bad, just not what a frontline starter would probably do.
Noggy wrote:It's not like I'm comparing Jamie Moyer to Randy Johnson. Their similar enough (especially when Lilly was younger) to compare. You said at first they're different because Lester gets more strikeouts and ground balls, which really isn't the case. Just because Lester throws 2-3 MPH harder than Lilly did when he was young doesn't mean they are all that much different.
Noggy wrote:You're ignoring his good but not great stats and treating scouting reports like they are the end all. I hate to break it to you, but scouts aren't always right.
Noggy wrote:Like I said, Kris Benson was drafted 1st overall, I bet the scouts loved him. How'd that work out?
I never said he had superstar potential like those 3 do. I just think he has No. 1 to No. 2 ability.
Actually I said that they differ because Lilly is a finesse pitcher and Lester is a power pitcher. I brought up the ground balls and flyballs to emphasize the point. Its tough to disagree with that because Lilly clearly has always been that type of pitcher. Lester undoubtedly relies on his fastball as his out pitch.
Well that's not exactly the same thing is it? Benson had yet to play professional baseball and was still very young.
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